2018-19 Southern Conference Post-Mortem

The rise of the Southern Conference-maybe revival is a better term-was one of the best-kept secrets in college basketball the last couple years. That secret started to get out to the masses in the 2018-19 season.

It’s harsh to say but true: five years ago, the concisely dubbed SoCon was one of the worst conferences in NCAA Division I college basketball, and though something of an aberration, it wasn’t much of one. In 2014, the SoCon was the 30th-ranked team in the NCAA’s conference RPI ranking. The year before that, it was 27th. In 2012 it was 23rd.

In fact, over a 10-year spell from 2005-14, the conference ranked no better than 17th, and though never as bad as 27th again in that time, it was 20th or worse in the NCAA’s ratings all but two of those years. More than not, the SoCon was by true definition a low-major, a league in the bottom third of Division I. And all that was before the league’s signature basketball program left for greener pastures when Davidson moved to the Atlantic 10 in the summer of 2014.

The ancient SoCon’s resurgence in recent years-finishes of 16th in the RPI each of the previous two years-was as impressive as it has been drastic, and it got even better this year. A league that a few years back ranked ahead of only the cash-strapped MEAC and SWAC was now besting conferences that play major college football, as well as some of the best basketball-first leagues out there.

This year was the most impressive season by the Southern Conference in decades, at least half a century. Comparing apples to apples, in the conference RPI in 2018-19 the SoCon was an all-time best, ranking a lofty 11th, ahead of the likes of the Colonial, Conference USA, the Missouri Valley, Mountain West and, yes, Davidson’s Atlantic 10. The league measured slightly lower in the home-loaded schedules and margin-of-victory rewarding NET, coming in 15th, but four teams still placed in the NET top 75.

Two SoCon teams spent time in the national polls in the same season for the first time since 1960, when those schools were Virginia Tech and West Virginia. (To illustrate how old the conference is, the league in 1953 had four teams ranked: Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State and Wake Forest). Three teams had legitimate NCAA Tournament hopes on Selection Sunday, and though only champion Wofford got into the field, the Terriers earned the highest seed by a league team in 40 years, while UNC Greensboro was the acknowledged first team out of the bracket.

A formidable top four with East Tennessee State, Furman, UNC Greensboro and Wofford led the way, with all four winning at least 22 games. Both Furman and Wofford spent time in the national polls. Wofford posted a 21-game winning streak. UNCG lost just one regular season game to a team ranked outside the top 14 in the NCAA’s NET rating.

Furman defeated half of the previous season’s Final Four and was one of the surprises of the first half of the season, with post man Matt Rafferty joining Wofford’s Fletcher Magee in having an All-American caliber season. East Tennessee State won one of the last four-team in-season tournaments left, taking the long-running Sun Bowl Invitational. Across the league, attendance was up and arenas packed for games involving all four of those teams.

Wofford in particular was spectacular, rising up to No. 13 in the NET rating and defeating Seton Hall in the NCAA tourney first round. An experienced, deep team that meshed exceptionally very nearly made it to the Sweet 16 before dropping a narrow decision to Kentucky.

In fact, the Terriers were so good that they almost certainly cost the Southern Conference an NCAA Tournament bid. Per the NCAA, UNC Greensboro fell out of the field the night before selections were released when Oregon won the Pac-12 tournament, but a win in one of their three meetings with the Terriers probably would’ve been enough to get the Spartans over the hump and give the SoCon two NCAA bids for the first time ever. Furman was right there for the NCAAs as well, and one win over nearby rival Wofford might’ve done the trick in getting the Paladins to the Big Dance for the first time since 1980.

Even then, the Southern did succeed in its two-bid quest in one regard, as it still sent two teams to the NIT for the first time ever. UNC Greensboro’s ultra-near miss of the NCAAs stung slightly, but didn’t diminish in the least the improvement this league continues to make, to where it is now not just improved by one deserving a legit look at on the national scene.

Final Standings:

Conference Tournament
The granddaddy of all conference get-togethers, the Southern Conference Tournament was contested for the 99th time, easily the oldest tourney in the country and maybe one of the most underrated historic feats in sports. Once again it took place at a well-located neutral site in the Blue Ridge Mountains in Asheville, N.C., and incredibly, higher seeds went 9-for-9 in the tourney, though maybe it’s not so incredible considering Wofford’s run through the regular season.

The most notable part about the first round play-in games was VMI’s Bubba Parham scoring 41 points (including 17 of 18 from the free throw line) in the No. 8 Keydets’ 96-83 win over 9 seed Western Carolina and seventh-seeded Samford shooting a steamy 60.7% in a 100-71 rout of The Citadel. VMI was quickly eliminated one round later by top seed Wofford by a 99-72 score, but Samford put a major scare into No. 2 UNC Greensboro in the quarterfinals. The Bulldogs led by 12 at halftime and still by nine with less than seven minutes left before the Spartans rallied, with Francis Alonso scoring 11 of his 31 late in an eventual 77-70 win. In the other quarterfinals, No. 3 seed Furman rode 15 three-pointers to an 85-74 win over sixth-seeded Mercer and East Tennessee State held off Chattanooga 68-64, getting 38 points from its bench to win the 4-vs.-5 game.

Terrific crowds were on hand for both semifinals at the U.S. Cellular Center. East Tennessee State was unable to slow down Wofford’s potent, efficient offense, with Fletcher Magee (26) and Cameron Jackson (20) combining for 46 points in an 81-72 win. The second game saw UNC Greensboro pull down 16 offensive rebounds, and though the Spartans somehow turned those into a grand total of just one second-chance point, the extra possessions kept the ball away from Furman enough for UNCG to sneak out a 66-62 win.

A crowd of 6,400 packed in for the final, where UNC Greensboro gave its best shot at redeeming a pair of ugly regular season losses to Wofford. The Spartans led by nine in the first half and trailed for just 46 seconds in the game’s first 36 minutes. UNCG was still ahead by five after a three-pointer by Alonso with 5:41 left before its gritty effort turned into a nightmare. Wofford went on a 16-0 run, with Nathan Hoover scoring the first eight to put the Terriers ahead, and the No. 1 seed made 13 straight free throws in its game-ending 20-3 run. Wofford prevailed 70-58, the final score giving no indication of how tenaciously this one was contested but just the same telling how clearly the Terriers were the SoCon’s best team all season.

Postseason Awards
Player of the Year: Fletcher Magee, G, Sr., Wofford
Defensive Player of the Year: Isaiah Miller, G, So., UNC Greensboro
Freshman of the Year: Kevin Easley, G, Tennessee-Chattanooga
Coach of the Year: Mike Young, Wofford

All-Conference Team
Francis Alonso, G, Sr., UNC Greensboro
Cameron Jackson, F, Sr., Wofford
Fletcher Magee, G, Sr., Wofford
Isaiah Miller, G, So., UNC Greensboro
Matt Rafferty, F, Sr., Furman

Season Highlights

• Wofford went undefeated in the Southern Conference regular season on the way to 30 wins overall, the first SoCon team to win 30 games since North Carolina State all the way back in 1950-51. The Terriers also were ranked in the Associated Press top 25 poll for the first time in school history, spending the final four weeks of the season in the poll and rising as high as 19th.
• Wofford also defeated Seton Hall in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, the SoCon’s first win in the Big Dance since Davidson’s Elite Eight run in 2008. The Terriers’ No. 7 seed in the NCAAs also was the league’s best since Appalachian State was a 6 seed in 1979, the first year the NCAA seeded the field.
• The SoCon also sent two teams to the NIT for the first time in league history, with UNC Greensboro receiving a 1 seed and Furman a 3 seed. The Spartans won their opening game before bowing to eventual NIT finalist Lipscomb, while the Paladins received a tough draw and fell to eventual semifinalist Wichita State.
• Furman defeated two of the 2018 Final Four on the road in November, winning at both Loyola Chicago and defending national champion Villanova. The Paladins would eventually get off to a 12-0 start, the best by a SoCon team since Lefty Driesell coached Davidson to a 15-0 open in 1963-64. Like Wofford, Furman also was ranked in the AP top 25 for the first time, spending three weeks in the poll in December.
• Wofford’s Fletcher Magee was quite possibly the top shooter in the country, and he led NCAA Division I in three-pointers made (158) and triples per game (4.51). He also was fourth nationally in free throw percentage (91.0%).
• Magee led a proficient collective three-point attack, as Wofford was second in Division I in three-point field goal percentage (41.4%) and also second in scoring margin (+16.7 ppg). The Terriers also were third in three-pointers made (385) and fifth in winning percentage (85.7%).
• Furman guard Jordan Lyons tied a Division I single-game record with 15 three-pointers on his way to scoring 54 points in a win over NCAA D-II North Greenville on Nov. 13.

What we expected, and it happened: UNC Greensboro and East Tennessee State have been at the forefront of the Southern Conference’s rise with some dandy duels the last couple years, and both were again strong contenders.

What we expected, and it didn’t happen: After two straight exciting three-team races at the top of the standings, most would’ve thought the SoCon would go down to the wire again, but Wofford rolled through league play to become the first undefeated champion since Stephen Curry and Davidson in 2007-08.

What we didn’t expect, and it happened: Furman was a very solid program the previous three years, but the Paladins were one of the stories of the early season and their rise to NCAA at-large contender status was a pleasant surprise. In fact, the league’s continued advancement as a whole could fit in here. Most who have been paying attention knew the SoCon was improved the last couple years, but it still was another major step to a level where the conference had multiple NCAA at-large quality teams. Also, it was easy to forget that coming into the season Wofford was just one of many teams that looked good coming into the season and was tied for fourth in the league (with Mercer) the year before. The Terriers were certainly a contender on paper, but their massive success outpaced all expectations.

Team on the rise: Samford. We would’ve put Chattanooga here, but the Mocs were plundered by three starters jumping on the transfer train after the season. The Bulldogs made a nice rally last year after a disappointing season the year before and were even better than their final record, with four losses in overtime, three coming against Belmont, East Tennessee State and Wofford. Samford also should have four starters back, though big man Ruben Guerrero will be missed.

Team on the decline: Mercer. We’re not a fan of the move to let go coach Bob Hoffman, but it is true the Bears were a bit disappointing this year, falling from 19 wins to 11. The program’s entry into the Southern Conference has coincided with a number of league schools stepping up their programs.

2019-20 Southern Outlook
The SoCon has risen to heights it hasn’t seen in many, many years. The question going forward: can the league stay there?

It’s going to be tough to have three bona fide NCAA tourney at-large contenders again, but that doesn’t mean the SoCon can’t be pretty darn good and hang solidly in the top half of Division I conferences. The favorite almost certainly will be East Tennessee State, which some might project to make a Wofford-like leap. The Buccaneers are going to be on many short lists of chic darkhorses coming into the season with the return of their top six scorers. ETSU has size, shooters, balance and experience. Steve Forbes has won at least 24 games in each of his first four years in Johnson City, so the expectations will be very high.

UNC Greensboro and Wofford both have some major holes to fill, but don’t count out either one. The Spartans in particular will have a formidable frontcourt, especially if James Dickey can stay healthy, and Isaiah Miller is fully capable of being the No. 1 scoring option on the perimeter, even as he is not the shooter Francis Alonso was. The Terriers saw coach Mike Young depart for Virginia Tech and lose Fletcher Magee plus most of their frontcourt as well, but Nathan Hoover is capable of lighting it up in many the same ways as Magee did. Similarly, Furman suffers what may be the biggest loss of all in the conference with Matt Rafferty completing his outstanding career. The Paladins ran much of their offense through Rafferty, so the emphasis may change, but four starters do return, including the high-scoring Jordan Lyons. In the case of all three teams, 2019-20 will be a great litmus test for if they have graduated to that next level of programs that reloads instead of rebuilds.

If any does slip, Samford could break up the fab four at the top; the Bulldogs have three excellent guards in Josh Sharkey, Brandon Austin and Myron Gordon and return four starters in all. Even after it took some hits when transferitis struck its roster, Chattanooga still has enough young talent to be a nuisance. Mercer will be interesting to watch under new coach Greg Gary, who comes highly regarded, and Western Carolina could make a move too in Mark Prosser’s second year. The Catamounts were competitive in most of their losses last year and the top five scorers return.

Twitter: @HoopvilleAdam