2018-19 MAC Post-Mortem

Placing into perspective how historic the success of Buffalo was in the 2018-19 season itself and over the last five years in the Mid-American Conference overall is pretty simple.

This year, the MAC was perhaps the strongest it has ever been from top-to-bottom, yet the Bulls were head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Also: no team had ever won as many as four MAC tourneys or made NCAA Tournament trips four times in a five-year span, until UB accomplished the feat this year.

The rise of Buffalo the last five years will go down as one of the great stretches in MAC basketball history, perhaps even the greatest. And this year’s Bulls team certainly can lay claim as one of the best teams in the conference’s 73 years of playing hoops.

Buffalo’s 32 wins set a new MAC single-season record, and the Bulls’ season has to be on the short list of most accomplished ones ever in the conference. Not since Rick Majerus-led Ball State’s 29-3 mark in 1988-89 has a Mid-American team posted as sparkling of a record as UB’s 32-4 this year, and Kent State’s Elite Eight run in 2002 was the last time a MAC team made the nation pay so much attention to one of it teams.

The Bulls entered the national rankings early in the season and never left them again (not even after pollsters completely overreacted after each of the few losses and sent them tumbling down the ranks far more than deserved). Buffalo won at West Virginia and Syracuse out of conference. It was imposing, skilled, played hard and played with a giant target on it all year, yet still won the East Division title and MAC Tournament.

A lofty and deserved No. 6 seed for the NCAA Tournament was validation of their year, and the Bulls won a game in the NCAA Tournament for the second straight campaign. A very real possibility of a deep run in the tourney was stoned by a Texas Tech buzzsaw in the second round, but names like C.J. Massinburg, Nick Perkins and coach Nate Oats won’t soon be forgotten in league annals.

For all that Buffalo’s season was recognized in polls, though, it’s likely that few understood just how impressive it was, for it came while the MAC as a group enjoyed one of its best seasons. The league finished ninth in conference rankings for the NCAA’s NET ranking (per WarrenNolan.com) and also in the old conference RPI. Comparing the latter over the years, it is the league’s best-ever rank since the NCAA started using the RPI in the 80s. The MAC finished solidly ahead of leagues like the Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley and Mountain West, and wasn’t far off from the WCC and the Pac-12.

Toledo won 25 games on its way to the West Division title, and the Rockets were on the fringe of the NCAA at-large discussion several times in the season. Kent State got off to an 11-2 start including wins at Vanderbilt and Oregon State, and the Golden Flashes won 22 games. So did Bowling Green, the league’s biggest surprise and one of two in the MAC to knock off Buffalo in the regular season. Others hovered more around the .500 mark, but all except Western Michigan won at least 14 games, and even teams like WMU and Ohio were capable enough to give Buffalo a stiff challenge in defeat.

The year constituted a definite step forward for a league that already has been on the upswing. The MAC has now finished 12th or better in the conference RPI in five of the last six seasons, establishing that it belongs in the discussion regularly among that group just outside the TV leagues.

For all the success the MAC had, there is still room for improvement. The conference was just a collective 4-30 against teams inside the RPI top 100. A good part of that was due to scheduling-4-for-34 also applies for the number of those games that were at home, but even a few more wins at road or neutral sites would’ve lifted the league higher.

Final Standings:

Conference Tournament
The MAC again followed a familiar format for its postseason event, with first round games played on campus sites before the final eight gathered in Cleveland, the 20th straight year the city of the Browns, Cavaliers and Indians has hosted the tourney.

The on-campus openers and the quarterfinals went largely as expected save for a few exceptions. The only upset in the first round was No. 11 Ball State routing 6 seed Eastern Michigan 61-43 in a battle of two disappointing teams. The Cardinals were eliminated by third-seeded Bowling Green 99-86 in the quarterfinals, but 2 seed Toledo was stunned by No. 7 Northern Illinois 80-76 in the quarters, and the Huskies stayed hot from long range for the second straight game after an 80-61 win over 10 seed Ohio in the opener. A minor upset also saw No. 5 Central Michigan edge Kent State 89-81 in the 4-vs.-5 game.

The tourney really heated up in the semifinals. Top seed Buffalo drilled No. 8 Akron 82-46 in the quarterfinals and led Central Michigan by seven early in their semifinal game, but the Chippewas responded and controlled the middle stages of the game, leading by five at halftime and by eight early in the second half. The Bulls struggled from outside (6-for-32 from three-point range) against CMU’s zone defense, but their dominance on the boards (47-30 advantage) kept them in it. The game was still tied with less than 2 1/2 minutes left, but C.J. Massinburg scored Buffalo’s final nine points, including seven at the foul line. The Chippewas never quit and were within one possession all the way until Massinburg hit two at the line with 5.8 seconds left, clinching a hard-earned 85-81 win. The second semifinal saw Bowling Green roar out to a 46-23 halftime lead against upstart Northern Illinois, only to see the Huskies come all the way back. Eugene German scored 20 in the second half alone, and NIU tied it at 56-56 on a three by big Noah McCarty with 5:13 left. The Huskies never could get over the hump to take the lead, though. A late 7-0 run gave the Falcons some breathing room, Dylan Frye and Justin Turner combined to score their team’s final 15 points, and BG held on for a 71-67 win to advance to the MAC tourney final for just the second time since 1983 and the first time since 2002.

The championship game followed the theme of the MAC season. Buffalo was tested and pushed hard by a game opponent, but was up to the test. The teams went back and forth for 32 minutes with seven ties and 12 lead changes, and Bowling Green actually held a one-point halftime lead and was up two again with just over eight minutes to play. Davonta Jordan hit a three-pointer with 8:02 left to put the Bulls up for good, and Buffalo had all the answers down the stretch. A 13-2 run to close the game left a deceiving final score, but UB’s 87-73 victory wrapped up a fourth MAC tourney title in five years.

Postseason Awards
Player of the Year: C.J. Massinburg, G, Sr., Buffalo
Defensive Player of the Year: Dontay Caruthers, G, Sr., Buffalo
Freshman of the Year: Ben Vander Plas, F, Ohio
Sixth Man of the Year: Nick Perkins, F, Sr., Buffalo
Coach of the Year: Nate Oats, Buffalo

All-Conference Team
C.J. Massinburg, G, Sr., Buffalo
Nick Perkins, F, Sr., Buffalo
Jaelan Sanford, G, Sr., Toledo
Justin Turner, G, So., Bowling Green
Jaylin Walker, G, Sr., Kent State

Season Highlights

• Buffalo won a school- and MAC-record 32 games, claimed both regular season and tournament titles, and entered the national polls in November for the first time in school history and never left as UB was ranked the rest of the season.
• The Bulls also were a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the highest seed for a MAC school since Toledo was a 5 seed in 1979, the first year the NCAA seeded teams, and Buffalo also won a first round game for the second straight year, the first conference school to accomplish that feat since Kent State (2001-02).
• Toledo also had a fine season, winning 25 games, second-most in a season in school history. The Rockets won the in-season eight-team Gulf Coast Showcase and at the end of the year qualified for the NIT, falling at Xavier in the first round.
• Central Michigan and Kent State also went to the postseason but both exited early, the Chippewas at DePaul in the first round of the College Basketball Invitational and the Golden Flashes at Louisiana-Monroe in the CollegeInsider.com Tournament.
• The MAC finished ninth in both the conference RPI and among conferences in the NCAA’s new NET ranking. League teams combined to post a sparkling 84-49 record in non-conference play.
• Kent State’s Jalen Avery led NCAA Division I in assist-to-turnover ratio (5.05:1). Eastern Michigan big man James Thompson also was second nationally in offensive rebounds per game (4.09).
• Central Michigan ranked fourth in Division I in total free throw attempts with 908. Buffalo also posted the fourth-best winning percentage in the nation (88.9%), while Bowling Green was fifth in total rebounds/game (41.06).

What we expected, and it happened: Buffalo was the team everyone was chasing coming into the season. They’re still chasing. Even with the league collectively as strong as it has been in some time, the Bulls still were the clear cut best.

What we expected, and it didn’t happen: Ball State appeared fully primed for a run at the MAC title. The Cardinals played well out of conference but then faltered badly in the MAC and not only didn’t meet expectations but finished with a losing record. It was a puzzling year for a team that had been on the rise under coach James Whitford. Ohio also was a team many thought was due to make a move forward, and the Bobcats had some moments in non-conference play but faltered in league, costing Saul Phillips his job.

What we didn’t expect, and it happened: Central Michigan mounted a challenge to Toledo in the West Division. The Chippewas were more than just a gaudy record against a pillow-soft non-conference schedule this year, finishing with a winning record on the road and even very nearly knocked out Buffalo in the MAC tourney

Team on the rise: Bowling Green. Easy choice. The Falcons made a leap from middling to contender in coach Michael Huger’s fourth year, and bring back an experienced nucleus next year. Justin Turner should become the league’s premier player next year and someone to watch nationally.

Team on the decline: Western Michigan. The Broncos fell on hard times with their worst mark in nearly 20 years. Coach Steve Hawkins is as highly respected as they come and won at least 20 games seven of his first 12 years, but it has now been four years since Western won that many.

2019-20 MAC Outlook
There’s a very good chance the Mid-American Conference enters a new era next year, one not so dominated by Buffalo. Apparently not convinced he had the resources to keep the program at the level it was last year, Nate Oats left for Alabama and SEC riches shortly after the season. Also out the door, though, are the Bulls’ top three scorers and in all five of the seven who made up the heart of the team’s rotation. Starters Davonta Jordan and Jayvon Graves are back to help lead the backcourt, and former assistant Jim Whitesell will help maintain continuity, just as the program did when Oats took over for Bobby Hurley. Whitesell has plenty of coaching experience-24 years as a collegiate head coach, including at the D-I level at Loyola (Ill.). Don’t count out the Bulls, but it’s just a fact that Whitesell will not enter battle with the same weapons Buffalo had the last couple years.

Then again, it’s not as if Buffalo is the only team to lose some of its stars. In fact, 14 of the 20 players named to an all-MAC team last year were seniors, and two of the other six transferred in the offseason. Four of the five on the all-defensive team also were seniors. A number of teams are on the search for new leading men going into next season.

Bowling Green is not. The Falcons bring back Justin Turner, an unselfish, all-around talent who plays both ends well and will be an overwhelming favorite for conference player of the year honors. Three other starters return, too, including Dylan Frye, whose baby face belies his ability to fill it up. The BGs will be a chic pick to win the MAC next year, but even with their upward trajectory are no cinch to do so. Replacing Demajeo Wiggins and his regular double-doubles up front will be important, and the go-go Falcons can still get better and more consistent offensively.

Toledo should also remain solid; you can almost pencil in the Rockets for at least 17-18 wins minimal under Tod Kowalczyk. Jaelan Sanford and Nate Navigato are considerable losses, but Luke Knapke and Willie Jackson could mean Toledo is a bit more frontcourt-oriented while Marreon Jackson continues to be a fine point guard. Kent State should remain a contender, too, even while losing the prolific if rather enigmatic Jaylin Walker. Antonio Williams is primed to be a first team all-MAC performer, and the frontcourt will be excellent if Danny Pippen returns strong from a knee injury that cost him the season.

Akron, Central Michigan and Miami (Ohio) also all return three starters each. The Zips and RedHawks both are solid defensively but can get better on the offensive end. Young Miami in particular still has some upside, with Nike Sibande, Dalonte Brown and Bam Bowman making a nice top three. The Chippewas might seem in trouble with the loss of over 34 ppg between Larry Austin and Shawn Roundtree, except the other three starters return and sixth man Dallas Morgan will be plenty ready to take a few more shots himself.

Twitter: @HoopvilleAdam