2018-19 Pac-12 Post-Mortem

Last year, we looked back on a season to forget in the Pac-12. It was bad enough before the postseason, then the NCAA Tournament ended without a single conference team winning a game. At that point, the thinking was the only way to go from there was up.

Boy, were we ever wrong about that. The 2018-19 Pac-12 season said to its predecessor, “Hold my beer.”

Non-conference play is where the tone is set for the season, as well as the potential for NCAA Tournament bids. The Pac-12 once again struggled to get quality wins, but that wasn’t the half of it. The conference barely finished above .500 in the month of December as the losses came in bunches. UCLA was at the center of it, losing four in a row by an average of 15 points, albeit all four against NCAA Tournament teams in Belmont, Cincinnati, Ohio State and Liberty. But they were not alone. Let’s go down the list:

• Arizona State lost at Vanderbilt by 16 after Darius Garland was lost for the season, then lost to Princeton less than two weeks later.
• Cal lost to Yale by 17, San Francisco by 19, was blown out at Fresno State and lost to Seattle. Oh, and they barely got past Cal Poly 67-66.
• Colorado finished seventh in the Diamond Head Classic after losing to Indiana State and Hawaii.
• Oregon State lost to Kent State.
• USC was annihilated by TCU at the Staples Center and lost at Santa Clara.
• Utah lost to Hawaii and was blown out by Northwestern.
• Washington State lost at Seattle and against Montana State and Santa Clara.

The picture is not a pretty one. It adds up to the conference going 92-58 overall, the worst non-conference mark since Colorado and Utah joined the conference in 2010-11 – and that record was the worst in 24 years at the time. The Pac-12 had a 7-26 record against the other power 5 conferences and the Big East, including an 0-7 record against Big Ten schools, and went 7-10 against an improved West Coast Conference. For comparison, the West Coast Conference went 15-14 against Power 5 plus Big East schools.

Here’s another metric that gives you an idea: the conference was eighth in the nation in winning percentage in non-conference play, behind the other Power 5 conferences, the Big East, American Athletic Conference and West Coast Conference.

There was some redemption in the postseason, however, and all after the conference shocked many by getting three teams in the NCAA Tournament. Oregon played more like they were projected to late in the season and in the Pac-12 Tournament, stealing a bid by winning the championship, and then winning two games to reach the Sweet 16. Washington and Arizona State each won a game as well, giving the conference a 4-3 record a year after going 0-3. Colorado was the only other postseason team, and the Buffaloes advanced to the quarterfinals of the NIT.

In between all of this, it’s been noteworthy that usual powerhouses Arizona and UCLA have fallen from grace. UCLA was up and down during Steve Alford’s tenure, with this year being a decidedly down year, though even in the up years they were almost never a serious national title contender. Arizona had been on a good run during Sean Miller’s tenure, but ever since last season’s blowout loss to Buffalo in the NCAA Tournament, it’s been mostly downhill. The Wildcats didn’t suffer any bad losses in non-conference play, but conference play was another story as they at one point lost seven in a row and eight of nine, including a 14-point home loss to Washington State. They finished 8-10 in Pac-12 play, just their second losing record in conference play since Lute Olson’s first season at the helm in 1983-84. And with Miller being prominently mentioned in testimony regarding part of the FBI investigation, one has to wonder if he isn’t on borrowed time in Tucson.

The past two years have to make one wonder about the job security of the coaches. After no changes came a year ago, this time around is another story as three teams have changed head coaches since the season ended. Cal fired Wyking Jones after two seasons, and he will be replaced by former Nevada and Georgia head coach Mark Fox. Washington State let Ernie Kent go, then made a solid hire with former Columbia and San Francisco head coach Kyle Smith. UCLA was the biggest story of all, firing Steve Alford before the calendar turned to 2019. Murry Bartow was never going to get the job after running the show the rest of the year, and after a protracted search that involved several coaches saying “thanks, but no thanks”, they hired Mick Cronin away from Cincinnati.

So just like a year ago, we’re looking back on a bad year for the Pac-12. This one at least had a better ending, and in part for that reason, it’s a bit easier to think things will be better next season. As we saw this past season, though, that is far from something you can take to the bank.

Final Standings

Conference Tournament

Given what the regular season provided, the Pac-12 Tournament figured to be well worth watching from a competitive standpoint. It didn’t disappoint, as of the four games won by the lower seed, three were by one team.

There were no surprises in the opening round, where No. 8 USC took care of No. 9 Arizona 78-65 and No. 5 Colorado edged No. 12 Cal 56-51 in the first session, then No. 7 UCLA beat No. 10 Stanford 79-72 and No. 6 Oregon blew out No. 11 Washington State 84-51 in what would be Ernie Kent’s last game as head coach of the Cougars.

The quarterfinals saw half of the lower seeds win, and there was a close call right away as No. 1 Washington barely got past USC 78-75. In the second half of the first session, No. 5 Colorado took out No. 4 Oregon State 73-58. In the second session, No. 2 Arizona State got past UCLA 83-72 and Oregon took care of No. 3 Utah 66-54.

The semifinals were two good ones, as Washington edged Colorado 66-61, then Oregon beat Arizona State 79-75 in overtime.

That set up the championship game, which matched up two teams that had just met a week earlier in the regular season finale for each team. Oregon took over that game to win more convincingly than the eight-point margin of victory would imply, but on this night, there was no doubt. The Ducks’ defense took over later on, and they ran away from the Huskies 68-48 to cap off a dominating four days that saw them set tournament records for scoring margin, points, field goals, steals and blocked shots.

Postseason Awards

Player of the Year: Jaylen Nowell, Washington
Rookie of the Year: Luguentz Dort, Arizona State
Coach of the Year: Mike Hopkins, Washington
Defensive Player of the Year: Matisse Thybulle, Washington
Most Improved Player: Tyler Bey, Colorado
Sixth Man of the Year: Donnie Tillman, Utah

All-Conference Team
Sedrick Barefield, Sr. G, Utah
Tyler Bey, So. G-F, Colorado
Bennie Boatwright, Sr. F, USC
Zylan Cheatham, Sr. F, Arizona State
Robert Franks, Sr. F, Washington State
Jaylen Nowell, So. G, Washington
K.Z. Okpala, So. F, Stanford
Matisse Thybulle, Sr. G, Washington
Tres Tinkle, Jr. F, Oregon State
McKinley Wright IV, So. G, Colorado

Season Highlights

• Arizona State forward Zylan Cheatham was the only player in the conference to average a double-double.
• Oregon became the first team to knock off the top three seeds in the Pac-12 Tournament, and just the second team in conference history to win four games in four days to claim the tournament title.
• Oregon’s run to the Sweet 16 gives the conference at least one team advancing that far in six of the past seven seasons (last year being the exception).
• Washington guard Matisse Thybulle ended his career with a conference record 331 steals, including a single-season record 126 this season.
• Oregon State’s Tres Tinkle was the only player in the conference to rank in the top ten in scoring (second), rebounding (fifth) and assists (ninth).

What we expected, and it happened: Washington was an NCAA Tournament team. Mike Hopkins’ first season at the helm gave everyone reason to believe this team would be an NCAA Tournament team with a lot of that team returning, and they lived up to that billing.

What we expected, and it didn’t happen: Oregon struggled for quite a bit of the season. Although Bol Bol’s injury after just nine games was a contributor, the Ducks were nothing special in non-conference play and then started out Pac-12 play 2-4, with three losses coming at home. This team had too much talent to finish sixth in a weak conference and have to storm through the conference tournament to reach the NCAA Tournament.

What we didn’t expect, and it happened: The conference as a whole was worse than a year ago in the regular season, especially in non-conference play. You had to think the conference would at least be better.

Team(s) on the rise: Colorado. There aren’t even the usual caveats about losing players early to the NBA Draft or to transfer, as the Buffs will have McKinley Wright IV and Tyler Bey back. That means they should be NCAA Tournament contenders next season and contend for the top spot.

Team(s) on the decline: Stanford. There was good reason for optimism when Jerod Haase took over, as well as early in his tenure, but now progress looks questionable. The Cardinal dropped to a three-way tie for eighth in the standings, they led the conference in turnovers, and KZ Okpala declared for the NBA Draft and stayed. Hasse may not be on the hot seat even next year, but the momentum has changed in Palo Alto.

2019-20 Pac-12 Outlook

What can we realistically expect in 2019-20 out west? After thinking it could only get better and being proven wrong, it’s a prediction worth repeating. How much better is in question.

Favorites have to start with Arizona and USC, although with a big caveat. As Sean Miller’s name continues to come up through the federal trial into corruption that has rocked the sport, one wonders if he will still be the head coach in Tucson by the start of next season. If he is, though, the current roster should stay intact, and it will include a big boost talent-wise. USC also brings in a solid class and will return Jonah Matthews and Nick Rakocevic, though Derryck Thornton’s transfer will be a hit.

Washington, Oregon and Colorado are not far behind them. The Huskies appear to be losing a good deal of production and experience, but they will also gain Isaiah Stewart and Quade Green. The Ducks get Peyton Pritchard back, but the roster is thin on experience overall and depth may be a concern between transfers and early NBA Draft entrants. Colorado, on the other hand, should have everyone back from a team that played well late in the season, and might be more than a dark horse.

Arizona State will have a good base with Remy Martin and Rob Edwards, and Romello White is a good holdover as well. However, the Sun Devils have as many questions as answers, and they have been a tough team to figure out of late. One game they look like a top 10 team, the next game they look ordinary.

UCLA will have some talent in Mick Cronin’s first year, but how they will adapt is anyone’s guess. Utah has been on a good run, even in years where they have lost significant production and experience, so you can’t rule them out, though they take an undeniable hit with the graduation of Sedrick Barefield and Donnie Tillman taking a year off to be with his ailing mother. Oregon State has some talent and could surprise with Tres Tinkle opting to return. For Stanford, the loss of KZ Okpala is a blow, and Washington State and Cal are in deep rebuilds with new head coaches and a lot of players having departed, the latter of which might not be as bad as it sounds considering how 2018-19 went for both teams.