2018-19 Sun Belt Post-Mortem

When one is surveying the national NCAA Division I basketball conference landscape, the Sun Belt Conference might be the definition of the middle.

Mediocrity might be a term that ruffles a few feathers. At the least, it doesn’t accentuate the positive that there is here. The Sun Belt is a good, solid league. In recent years it has been blessed with some very good individual talent, with plenty of stars capable of putting on a show and carrying their team. The teams haven’t been bad, either.

There have been six NCAA Tournament wins since 2008, not shabby considering the regular double-digit seeds its representatives receive, and overwhelmingly the league has had competitive teams from top to bottom. This year, for instance, the top four teams were separated by just one game, while Troy-a team that tied for the basement in conference-posted one of the Sun Belt’s top non-conference wins, taking down Western Kentucky on the road.

The other side of that is the Sun Belt is still missing that extra oomph to take it to the next level of being consistently in or knocking on the door of the top 10 leagues nationally.

Only twice in the last 25 years has it put an at-large team in the NCAA Tournament (Middle Tennessee State in 2013, South Alabama in 2008). To be frank, those double-digit seeds have regularly been all Sun Belt champions deserve. As a Division I-A (Football Bowl Subdivision) football league with plenty of mid-sized public institutions with enough support to be good in basketball if they so choose, neither of those facts should be acceptable.

In the 2018-19 season, the Sun Belt ranked 17th of 32 D-I conferences in both the NCAA’s new NET rating (per WarrenNolan.com) and the old conference RPI (which few may know is still calculated by the NCAA). The league actually performed quite well against peers, going a combined 18-9 against Conference USA, the Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Southern and West Coast conferences, including a 6-4 mark against neighboring FBS football league C-USA. Where the Sun Belt came up notably short was against the TV Conferences, with a 7-36 record against the American, ACC, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC.

Once again, the individual talent at the top could be put up against most any similar league’s-the all-conference first team was a tough one to crack, including one of the nation’s top 20 scorers (Arkansas State’s Ty Cockfield, 17th best at 22.4 ppg) plus another 20-ppg scorer (Arkansas-Little Rock’s Rayjon Tucker) both second team selections. And with plenty of teams in play for the regular season title, it was certainly a fun year, but there is still considerable work to do.

For as close as the league was, Georgia State again emerged as the best team, winning the Sun Belt regular season title and then taking the tourney title and NCAA Tournament bid for the second straight year. The Panthers again played sticky zone defense and also were one of the best all-around three-point shooting teams in the country. Veterans like D’Marcus Simonds and Malik Benlevi paced a team that defeated Alabama out of conference and also drilled in-state foe Georgia by 24 points. Unfortunately for the conference, Georgia State got just a 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament-in large part due to the margin-of-victory obsessed NET ranking, which overall undoubtedly hurt the Panthers, even despite the Georgia win-and was routed by Houston in the first round.

Final Standings:

Conference Tournament
After having returned for two years back to a more traditional tourney format with every team invited, the Sun Belt returned to a stepladder format like the one previously used from 2014-16, though this one found a medium with ten of 12 teams invited and leaving two teams home. The tourney opened with first round games on campus sites before the final four rounds were played at Lakefront Arena in New Orleans.

The tourney included a number of competitive games (five of the nine were decided by single digits) but just one real barnburner. The only game decided by less than eight points was in the second round, when No. 8 South Alabama nipped 5 seed Louisiana-Lafayette 70-69 as Rodrick Sikes broke a tie by making one of two free throws with 4.6 seconds left. The second round also was the site of the lone two wins by lower seeds, with seventh-seeded Louisiana-Monroe also blasted No. 6 Coastal Carolina 80-50.

Both the Jaguars (79-67 losers to No. 4 Texas State) and Warhawks (defeated 81-67 by 3 seed Georgia Southern) were eliminated in the next round in convincing fashion, including Georgia Southern leading by as many as 31 with six minutes left in the game. That brought a pair of semifinal games filled with defense and cold shooting. Top seed Georgia State shot just 32.1% against Texas State, but that was still more than enough with the Bobcats hitting just 21.3% from the field in the Panthers’ 59-46 win. No. 2 Texas-Arlington also kept Georgia Southern in check, limiting the Eagles to 36.7% from the floor and getting 21 points from Brian Warren in a 67-58 win.

Georgia State and Texas-Arlington met in the championship game for the second straight year. UTA led for much of the first 13 minutes, up until the Panthers took the lead after the under-8 TV timeout. Georgia State was in control the rest of the way, and though it never shook the Mavericks, GSU never trailed again and led by as many as 12 in an eventual 73-64 win. All five starters scored in double figures for the Panthers led by senior Malik Benlevi with a double-double (16 points, 11 rebounds), and a 34-17 advantage in free throw attempts and a plus-14 on foul shots made was a big difference as Georgia State won its third Sun Belt title in five years.

Postseason Awards
Player of the Year: Tookie Brown, G, Sr., Georgia Southern
Defensive Player of the Year: JaKeenan Gant, F, Sr., Louisiana-Lafayette
Freshman of the Year: DeVante Jones, G, Coastal Carolina
Newcomer of the Year: Daishon Smith, G, Sr., Louisiana-Monroe
Coach of the Year: Chris Ogden, Texas-Arlington

All-Conference Team
Tookie Brown, G, Sr., Georgia Southern
JaKeenan Gant, F, Sr., Louisiana-Lafayette
Nijal Pearson, G, Jr., Texas State
D’Marcus Simonds, G, Jr., Georgia State
Daishon Smith, G, Sr., Louisiana-Monroe

Season Highlights

• Georgia State won the regular season title and repeated as Sun Belt tourney champions, making its second straight trip to the NCAA Tournament. It also was the Panthers’ third trip to the NCAAs in five years.
• In all, the Sun Belt sent four teams to the postseason, tying a league high reached three times before, including in 1986 when it sent four teams to the NCAA Tournament. Coastal Carolina adanced to the CBI semifinals, posting a convincing win at West Virginia on the way. Louisiana-Monroe also advanced to the CIT quarterfinals before losing a triple-overtime dandy to Texas Southern. Texas State also played in the CIT, falling to Florida International in the first round.
• Georgia State earned the league’s biggest regular season win with one of the biggest comebacks in NCAA Division I history. The Panthers rallied from a 22-point second half deficit to top Alabama 83-80 as Malik Benlevi hit a three-pointer at the buzzer.
• Texas State won 24 games, its highest win total in 25 years, since posting 25 wins in 1993-94. The Bobcats’ 17-3 start was their best since 1959-60.
• Georgia Southern was one of the best-shooting teams in the country, with its 49.9% field goal percentage ranking fourth in Division I. Louisiana-Monroe also ranked sixth in the nation in three-point field goal percentage (39.6%) and free throw shooting (78.2%). Individually, Jakeenan Gant of Louisiana-Lafayette ranked eighth in the land in blocked shots per game (2.65).
• Georgia Southern’s Tookie Brown became the first four-time first team all-Sun Belt selection in the league’s 44-year history, picking up player of the year honors in his final season. He also is the first player in conference annals to score 2,000 points and notch 500 assists.
• Brown also had the unique distinction of being part of the highest scoring siblings in Division I. Brown averaged 17.3 ppg for the Eagles men’s team; sister Alexis averaged 17.4 for the GSU women’s squad.

What we expected, and it happened: Georgia State was the defending Sun Belt tourney champion and the regular season favorite this year, and the Panthers made good.

What we expected, and it didn’t happen: Troy had four starters returning led by Jordon Varnado and was picked to be at least mid-pack, but the Trojans faded late in the season, in part due to the absence of Varnado the last 10 games. The year cost Phil Cunningham his job just two years after taking Troy to the NCAA Tournament. Also, Louisiana-Lafayette was thought to be a strong contender to Georgia State even after losing stars like Frank Bartley and Bryce Washington, and the Ragin’ Cajuns weren’t bad but had too many defensive inconsistencies to get closer to the top.

What we didn’t expect, and it happened: Texas-Arlington was tabbed for 11th in the conference’s preseason poll and came in 11th or 12th in many preseason prognostications. On top of that, the school was a laughingstock in the sport after firing Scott Cross for ‘only’ winning 72 games over the previous three years. Considering all that plus the need to replace all five starters in his first year-and even a roster without a single senior-Chris Ogden did a whale of a job to take UTA to a tie for second and a trip to the Sun Belt tourney final.

Teams on the rise: South Alabama, Georgia Southern. Richie Riley is a coach on the move in the sport, with the recruiting touch to get players first at Nicholls State and now at USA that most wouldn’t have expected. Georgia Southern will miss Tookie Brown, but Quan Jackson was a revelation as a sophomore and the high-octane Eagles were one of the best-shooting teams in the country, doing much of their work inside the three-point line. If Ike Smith is able to return from an injury, then GSU will return the bulk of a team that had a really nice year.

Team on the decline: Troy. It’s true the Trojans weren’t able to capitalize on a surprising Sun Belt tourney run and NCAA Tournament berth in 2016, slipping from 22 wins to 12 in two years.

2019-20 Sun Belt Outlook
Expect more of the same from the Sun Belt next year. A number of its lead performers have departed (eight of the ten on the all-conference first and second teams) but there are plenty waiting in the wings to fill their roles. There is enough uncertainty, though, to keep one from projecting a breakout year for the league as a whole.

The early pick for a favorite from here would be Georgia Southern. The loss of Tookie Brown’s savvy and Montae Glenn’s interior presence cannot be discounted, but seven members of the nine-man rotation should be back, and five averaged between 7.8 and 14.8 points per game. The Eagles could stand to improve their perimeter shooting, and off-the-bench spark plug David-Lee Jones Jr. could help with that. GSU just missed tying for the regular season title last year and might’ve been the favorite if Ike Smith hadn’t suffered an injury after 10 games, but perhaps it just pushed the Eagles’ timetable back a year.

Texas-Arlington won’t be overlooked after Chris Ogden’s impressive first year, and Brian Warren will be among the top candidates for player of the year honors in the conference. Georgia State is a considerable wild card; Ron Hunter’s departure for Tulane leaves a hole and likely means philosophical changes with Rob Lanier now in charge, but the Panthers’ cupboard is not bare with guys like Nelson Phillips, Damon Wilson and Kane Williams, a D’Marcus Simonds play-alike who could become a star in the conference next year.

Texas State had a slightly sour finish (losing four of its last five after a 23-6 start) but still improved from 15 wins to 24. Danny Kaspar’s teams are steady as can be, always terrific defensively and disciplined on offense, but he also has a real star in Nijal Pearson. Also, watch South Alabama, which returns three double-figure scorers including Josh Ajayi, who should be one of the Sun Belt’s top players. The Jaguars also add three high-profile transfers in Josh Ayeni (St. Bonaventure), Don Coleman (California) and Andre Fox (High Point).

Coastal Carolina is intriguing with some young talent including DeVante Jones and point guard Ebrima Dibba, though the Chanticleers will miss Zac Cuthbertson. Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe both will be respectable. The Ragin’ Cajuns lost a lot of production from JaKeenan Gant and Marcus Stroman, but should be better defensively.

Improvement in basketball is clearly on the Sun Belt’s radar; how to get there is apparently still up for debate. The league originally put together a strategic plan in 2018, though in early June it was announced the conference is now re-evaluating that plan.

Twitter: @HoopvilleAdam