College basketball begins in one more week. It will be the 19th season of covering college basketball, the NBA Draft and recruiting here at Hoopville. And while the season seems to begin too early nowadays, in a sense perhaps the beginning will be just right after all. It will give us a chance to look at something other than off-court matters, which seems like a better idea than ever.
The game has rarely been at the crossroads it appears to be near right at this moment.
It’s been almost seven months since Virginia completed their magical run to reverse their fortunes from a year earlier. The Cavaliers went from a historic loss as the first No. 1 seed to lose a first round game to the first national championship in program history. The off-season always feels like it takes a long time as we look forward to the next season, but this time around, that appeared to be the case even more so. It feels like it’s been much longer.
The simple reason for it is that the FBI investigation into corruption, as well as related stories, have taken center stage this off-season. Instead of looking ahead to how this season may shake out, we’ve been treated to stories about the end of a federal trial, allegations a shoe company paid players before their college years, legal matters with former coaches and a blueblood program being served a Notice of Allegations.
All the while, amateur status is being attacked from multiple angles. The movement to pay athletes continues to grow and take many new forms, from maneuvers by one pro league to the formation of another and now legislation by one important state. More than ever, it looks as though college sports, including college basketball, will look very different before long. What form that different look takes is an open question, but at this point it seems clear that it will be very different. Inertia is not an active force right now.
Indeed, college basketball and everything connected to it already looks quite different than it did when we opened up 18 years ago. Back then, the NCAA Tournament field consisted of 64 teams and there was not a CBI or CIT, there was a 2-in-4 rule stating that a team could not appear in two in-season tournaments in a four-year span, high school seniors could elect to skip college and declare for the NBA Draft, and there were no shoe company sponsored travel circuits for the best high school basketball players. Transfers were not at as high a rate as now, and athletic directors didn’t have quite as quick a trigger finger with coaches.
For most of this off-season, there has been plenty to talk about that has little if anything to do with how the upcoming season will play out on the hardwood. Even the coaching changes were less of a conversation piece this time around. Finally, in another week, we can see the product on the floor and let that lead the conversation. The start of the games is always a welcome sight, but perhaps no more so than this time around.
Side Dishes
The ACC figures to have plenty of power at the top once again, but what form that takes is an open question. Duke and North Carolina will have plenty of talent, but much of it is new to the program and/or Division I, while Virginia has a few key pieces back but many questions as well. All of that means Louisville could contend for the top spot since the Cardinals bring back production and add a solid recruiting class. Florida State and Syracuse aren’t likely to take the top spot, but both will be interesting along with NC State and Notre Dame.
Around the time Hoopville came into being, Vermont transformed into a powerhouse in America East, and the Catamounts should rule the conference once again this year. UMBC should press them along with talented but younger Stony Brook and Albany teams in a conference that returns a good deal of its top talent from a year ago.
The American Athletic Conference did not exist when Hoopville was founded, though the conference it came into being from – the Big East – most certainly did. As we will talk about in more detail soon, the conference will be very interesting to watch this season, because no team rates as a clear favorite. There are reasons to pick any of Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis or Wichita State, but also questions with each. Temple has a coaching change, UConn has more talent in its final season before going back to the Big East, and USF won the CBI and returns all five starters.
The Atlantic 10 had a down year last season, but still managed to get two teams into the NCAA Tournament. This time around, that should happen a bit easier, with VCU leading the way thanks to the return of most of last year’s regular season champion, but sure to get a big push from Davidson and Dayton. Davidson returns two of the conference’s best players in Jon Axel Gudmundsson and Kellan Grady, while Dayton looks ready to contend in Anthony Grant’s third year at the helm of his alma mater. St. Bonaventure is always a dark horse, and Rhode Island and Richmond could join them in that category this season.
A year after winning the conference and a game in the NCAA Tournament, Liberty looks like the favorites once again the Atlantic Sun. The Flames have an experienced team with four starters returning, led by Caleb Homesley and Scottie James. North Florida, another experienced team, looks like the best bet to push them, but don’t rule out FGCU, NJIT and last season’s NIT runner-up, Lipscomb, though the Bisons lost some significant pieces.
Tonight’s Menu
A week from tonight, the games will begin for real. For now, prepare to come back tomorrow for more thoughts ahead of the season.
