A new season always brings with it some burning questions. There are, of course, many questions about the entire season, but some take on a little different meaning because they deal with more than just one season. They either allude to trends or history, and are of special interest.
Which burning questions are the hottest with just a few days to go before the season? Here are a few.
Can a freshman-dominated team win it all without a veteran leader? It’s easy to forget that the two recent national champions who were dominated by freshmen – Kentucky in 2011-12 and Duke in 2014-15 – each had at least one senior who was a starter or key reserve and a key leader. The Wildcats had Darius Miller, who is among the NCAA’s all-time leader in games played at 152, while Duke had a senior starter in Quinn Cook and other upperclassmen who were more than bit players. In recent years, those two have had teams with plenty of talent but no Darius Miller or Quinn Cook, and they have fallen short; will that change this year?
Will the Pac-12 bounce back? The conference has had two down years, with last year looking even worse until the postseason, when Oregon made a run to the Sweet 16 that would not have surprised many before the season but was a bit of a surprise after the Ducks underachieved. There is plenty of talent, but also a lot of questions around the conference.
Can the SEC keep up its high level of play? For years, the conference was known for superiority on the gridiron and mediocrity on the hardwood, but that changed the past two seasons. Finally, the conference had much more than just Kentucky and Florida going for it – and indeed, the Gators slipped last season although they won a game in the NCAA Tournament. Can other teams like Auburn, Tennessee, LSU and Mississippi State keep up their recent success and continue to bolster the conference?
Will one of the four remaining original Division I teams that have never made the NCAA Tournament finally break through this season? With Northwestern making it in 2017, only four original Division I programs have never made the NCAA Tournament: Army, Citadel, St. Francis Brooklyn and William & Mary. It doesn’t seem likely, although William & Mary would be favorites in the CAA if they had not lost much of their team after firing Tony Shaver. None of the teams are predicted to finish in the first division of their leagues, so it seems unlikely. If you want to go with one that might have a chance, try St. Francis Brooklyn since the Northeast Conference tends to be more wide open than most these days. For good measure, two others that have been in Division I since 1962, Maine and New Hampshire, seem unlikely to make it for the first time this season.
Could one of the traditional powers that is reloading this year fall flat? Some programs are so good at winning, it almost looks easy – but it isn’t. One could be forgiven for thinking that some teams will win a lot of games because, well, they’re (fill in powerhouse school) and that’s what they do. But several of the bluebloods are reloading with a number of newcomers that will need to produce right away this year, notably Kentucky, Duke and North Carolina. Their talent might catch up or they will figure it out, but could one of them just fall flat? It seems possible but unlikely.
Can any of the recent bottom-dwellers in the ACC rise to at least the middle tier? For programs like Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Boston College and Georgia Tech, it’s been an uphill battle of late, although Wake Forest has been in the NCAA Tournament recently and Georgia Tech was the NIT runner-up in 2017. None have had much success of late, though, and that doesn’t seem likely to change much this season. Pittsburgh seems the most likely team to move out of the bottom tier, as the Panthers showed a lot of promise in Jeff Capel’s first season at the helm last season.
Those questions and much more will be answered starting in just a few days.
Side Dishes
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Iona is the favorite in the MAAC, as the Gaels have long been one of the conference’s signature programs and have been especially dominant of late with four straight championships. With five starters back, Rider will give them a run for their money, while Quinnipiac and Monmouth lead the other contenders in a conference that is always very competitive from top to bottom.
Buffalo ruled the MAC the last couple of years, and the Bulls won’t go quietly now. But with a ton of experience and production gone from last season’s team and Nate Oats off to run the program at Alabama, they look primed to take a step back while Bowling Green and Toledo lead the way. Bowling Green has four starters back from a 22-win team, while Toledo has been a steady, consistent winner of late.
If you’re trying to predict the MEAC and don’t know much about teams in a given season, you could go with NC Central and Norfolk State to contend and probably not be wrong. That holds up this year, but also watch for Bethune-Cookman, who is certainly not a perennial contender but has three senior stars in preseason Player of the Year Cletrell Pope, Malik Maitland and Isaiah Bailey to lead the way.
Missouri State is a solid pick as favorites in the Missouri Valley, especially now that they have West Virginia transfer Lamont West ready to go. Bradley, who won the conference tournament, should push them with five of their top seven scorers returning, while Northern Iowa, Loyola-Chicago and Drake should be in the mix as well.
The Northeast Conference has been repeatedly hit hard by players transferring up in recent years, but a fair amount of the talent has stuck around this year. Look for LIU, Sacred Heart, Saint Francis U and defending champion Fairleigh Dickinson to lead the way there. Robert Morris and Mount St. Mary’s are the dark horses as they return four and five starters, respectively.
Tonight’s Menu
As we’ve been doing all week, we’re not hunting down any late exhibition games or scrimmages in this space, but rather, offering a closing thought. This will be a light night ahead of a full day of college football, so we’ll take it easy and continue looking ahead tomorrow.
