Conference play starts earlier and earlier, with opening night this year including conference games. Many conferences have already had their openers and then some, but the meat of conference play is right in front of us. The Ivy League, which has its own Friday-Saturday slate, starts in earnest later, of course, with only 14 league games before the Ivy League Tournament.
With all of that in mind, how do the conferences shape up now that we have over a month to look at? Here’s a look at all of them, including notes relative to who was favored before the season.
America East: This is Vermont’s to lose, as was the case before the season. Stony Brook might be the best bet to dislodge them, but that seems unlikely.
American Athletic Conference: If you had Memphis as preseason favorites, you might re-think that with James Wiseman gone, but they could still win it. Meanwhile, Wichita State looks solid, Houston is coming on strong and Temple, SMU and UCF have been quietly good. Don’t be surprised if Cincinnati, South Florida or Tulane knock off a top team down the stretch to influence the race.
Atlantic 10: Let’s revise the projections a bit, as Dayton now looks like the best team here, though not by leaps and bounds. VCU, Richmond, Saint Louis and George Mason all look like they could contend, while Duquesne has built confidence with wins and Rhode Island and Davidson are capable of winning as well.
ACC: At first glance, this looks like a two-horse race between Louisville and Duke, but Florida State, NC State and Virginia are capable as well. Lots of teams could be in play for the next tier, but it would be a surprise if the top seed for the ACC Tournament was not one of those five.
Atlantic Sun: This is Liberty’s to lose, plain and simple. It would be shocking if, say, North Florida or Jacksonville were to beat them out.
Big 12: Now that Kansas’ streak ended, it feels safe to pick someone other than the Jayhawks. But is Baylor the team to beat? It looks like either the Bears, Kansas, West Virginia or Texas, with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State being the dark horses. There doesn’t feel like much drop-off from top to bottom as well.
Big East: Speaking of not much drop-off from top to bottom, the Big East might once again be the most balanced conference, although that in part speaks to the lack of a national power. Villanova and Butler appear to lead the way, but not by much. Xavier should be right in the mix, Seton Hall is capable if Myles Powell comes back and can remain healthy, Marquette is capable and Creighton, St. John’s and DePaul have been pleasant surprises. Georgetown has responded well to some serious adversity, but the question is whether or not they can keep it up. Providence doesn’t look like a contender, but they are certainly capable of knocking off a top team to influence the race.
Big Sky: Montana was the preseason favorite, and the Grizzlies have taken some lumps as they have not played an easy schedule. But it’s fair to say that Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado and Sacramento State should all give them a run for their money.
Big South: This is a notoriously competitive conference all the way around, and this season should be no different. Radford was the preseason favorite and has done nothing to refute that, but Campbell has a good record, Winthrop has a quality win over Saint Mary’s and UNC Asheville also looks like they could contend.
Big Ten: One would be foolish to rule out Michigan State, despite their relatively tough month and a half. This is still a talented veteran team with a coach that knows how to win. But right now, Ohio State looks like the favorite, and Michigan, Maryland, Penn State (yes, you read that right) and Indiana all look capable of contending as well. There is plenty of depth, although Northwestern and Nebraska are clearly a notch below the other 12 teams.
Big West: This looks as competitive as it’s been in a while. UC Irvine has taken some lumps from a tough schedule, but the Anteaters are contenders. Hawaii, UC Santa Barbara and UC Riverside look like they have the best chance to knock them off.
CAA: Hofstra and College of Charleston were two of the preseason favorites, and they still belong there. Northeastern was as well, and while the Huskies haven’t fared as well, they can’t be counted out. Delaware has been a pleasant surprise, as has William & Mary, and Towson could be the dark horse.
Conference USA: Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky and UTEP lead the way in NET rankings, though the Hilltoppers are tough to project with Charles Bassey gone for the season. North Texas and Charlotte, the latter a pleasant surprise in year two under Ron Sanchez, are dark horses.
Horizon League: Wright State has had the best non-conference run, but Northern Kentucky has done well and has been well-tested. Those two appear to be the class of the conference based on the games to date.
Ivy League: The teams to beat continue to be Harvard, Penn and red-hot Yale. There isn’t much more to say other than that this ought to be a race for the fourth and final league tournament berth to join those three.
MAAC: Rider has had the best month and a half in the conference by a good margin, so put them down as favorites, with Siena and Canisius looking like the best challengers thus far.
MAC: Akron and Kent State appear to have had a better month and a half than everyone else, but don’t dismiss Ohio, Toledo, Buffalo and Bowling Green, all of who have had their moments.
MEAC: Toss them in a hat and pick them out. So many of these teams play a number of tough road games, it’s tough to put much stock in records or even NET rankings. Bethune-Cookman has the best record and has played fairly tough schedule, but they’re around the middle of the pack in NET. Coppin State and North Carolina A&T look like they should be in the mix, and don’t count out the winning DNA at NC Central just yet.
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa has emerged as the clear favorite, with no clear next contender. You can take your pick based off non-conference of Drake, Bradley, Evansville, Valparaiso, Loyola-Chicago, Indiana State and Missouri State. Don’t let the Bears’ 6-7 record throw you – they have played a tough schedule and lost some close ones.
Mountain West: This should be a three-horse race between San Diego State, Utah State and New Mexico, although the Lobos have a question as to when Carlton Bragg and J.J. Caldwell return. There’s a drop-off after that to Nevada, Boise State and Colorado State.
Northeast Conference: This is another conference that tends to be wide open, but based off non-conference play, Saint Francis U looks like the favorites with Bryant and Sacred Heart a little behind. Here’s one bet: Division I newcomer Merrimack won’t finish last, as the Warriors have the fifth-best NET in the conference and are very capable of winning their fair share of games.
Ohio Valley Conference: Belmont comes away looking like the favorites, with Tennessee State, Murray State, Austin Peay and Eastern Illinois all looking capable of challenging the Bruins.
Pac-12: The first thing to note is that the conference is much better than it has been. The second thing to note is that it is up for grabs. Take your pick between Arizona, Colorado, Oregon and Washington as favorites, but don’t sleep on Stanford, USC or Utah, and Arizona State is bound to play a role in this as well. Oregon State and UCLA could each knock off a top team at some point to influence the race.
Patriot League: Colgate looks even more like the favorites here than they did before the season, with Lafayette looking like the best challenger. The Raiders have a veteran team, have been tested and won at Cincinnati. Loyola (Md.) hasn’t done well since joining the league, but they have one of the best players and a good non-conference resume, so maybe this is the year they finally make a push.
SEC: Auburn has carried the flag for the SEC thus far, with Florida being more up and down than expected and Kentucky looking like they may take longer to hit their stride than other recent Wildcat teams. There is good depth here, with Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU and Arkansas also capable of making noise, while Mississippi State and South Carolina aren’t bad, either.
Southern Conference: This should be a fun conference to watch as there are four solid teams that should battle it out. East Tennessee State, Furman, UNC Greensboro and Wofford all look capable of winning it, with Western Carolina and Chattanooga being dark horses.
Southland: Stephen F. Austin looks like they should rule this conference once again, as they have the best record, best NET by a good margin and a win at Duke. Sam Houston State and Nicholls State look like the best challengers, as preseason favorite New Orleans has struggled with no Division I wins thus far.
Summit League: South Dakota looks like the favorites, with North Dakota State looking to be among the best challengers. Omaha, Oral Roberts and a remade South Dakota State team look like they should challenge as well.
Sun Belt: This conference is off and running with two games each in the books and five teams with 2-0 marks. Appalachian State, Georgia State and Arkansas State look like the best ones, but Little Rock, UT Arlington, Coastal Carolina and preseason favorite South Alabama are all capable.
SWAC: Here’s another wide-open conference from which the non-conference results don’t tell us much. Alabama A&M is the only team with more than two Division I wins, while Texas Southern leads the way in NET with Prairie View not far behind. As both have also been well-tested, they are probably the best picks as favorites.
WAC: Traditional power New Mexico State and Cal Baptist look like the class of this conference by a good margin.
West Coast Conference: Shocker: it’s Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, with BYU the closest thing to a dark horse. Santa Clara and San Francisco are good, but it would be a real surprise if either of them broke into the top three, let alone contended for the title.
