Just how many NCAA Tournament bids will the ACC get this season? After Tuesday night, that looks like more and more of an open question than ever.
It’s not your typical season in the ACC, or at least typical of late. This ACC isn’t going to place eight or nine teams in the Big Dance by a long shot, but other than a few locks, it’s anyone’s guess where it goes.
Let’s start with the locks, and there are three: Duke, who took care of Pittsburgh 79-67 behind 26 points and 13 rebounds from Vernon Carey Jr. on Tuesday night, as well as Florida State and Louisville. If any other ACC team becomes a lock, it’s not going to happen until very late in the season. The ACC is likely bubble central from there.
After that, let’s take Virginia, who beat Florida State 61-56 on Tuesday night for another quality win. The Cavs played well enough defensively, had a 36-23 rebounding edge and made their free throws to pull it out. They are 6-4 in the ACC, but the question is if they’ll have the wins versus the losses. Losses to South Carolina and Boston College don’t help, but wins over suddenly surging Syracuse (we’ll get to them), Arizona State and now Florida State help. The thinking is that the Cavs will eventually win enough to have the resume needed to get in, though perhaps not very comfortably based on what we’ve seen.
Now, the Orange, who lost 71-70 at Clemson on Tuesday night as the Tigers rallied to win at home. That we’re even talking about them as having any NCAA Tournament hopes seems remarkable considering they didn’t look good at all early in the season and have taken some depth hits. They had an awful couple of days in Brooklyn at the NIT Season Tip-Off, and the loss to Oklahoma State looks worse now that the Cowboys are winless in Big 12 play, but in all there aren’t any terrible losses here – the worst one is probably the home loss to Notre Dame. The best wins, however, aren’t over NCAA Tournament locks – Virginia and Virginia Tech, both on the road. They still have a shot at Duke coming up on Saturday at the Carrier Dome, where they’ve uncharacteristically struggled to win, as well as Florida State and Louisville (both on the road), but you get the feeling this is at best going to be a close call.
Then there’s Virginia Tech, who lost 71-61 at Miami despite the Hurricanes not having Chris Lykes due to injury once again. That the Hokies are even in this discussion is even more remarkable than Syracuse considering how bare the cupboard was for new head coach Mike Young, but their win over Michigan State in Maui will be the gift that keeps on giving. That is easily their best win, but it’s a good one, although they’ve also done well against other likely bubble teams with wins over Syracuse (road) and NC State (home), as well as at Clemson (not really a bubble team now) and North Carolina, who could make things interesting. The worst losses look like their last two, at Boston College and at Miami. They have Florida State at home on Saturday and still have to go to Duke and Louisville, so they have opportunities.
Finally, there is NC State, one of last year’s most disputed teams left out. If the Wolfpack ultimately make it, they surely will not have made it easy on themselves as we discussed a night earlier. Wins over Wisconsin, UNC Greensboro and Virginia help, but losses to Georgia Tech (twice) hurt, and the ones to Clemson and North Carolina could hurt more. Luckily, they still have chances – Louisville at home on Saturday, two meetings with Duke and a visit from Florida State.
In all, it feels like the ACC will be lucky to see five teams get in. Duke, Florida State and Louisville will be in barring a collapse, and some combination of the aforementioned bubble teams will make it – but it feels like no more than two will get there barring someone making a surprise run in the ACC Tournament. And as these bubble teams beat each other up and teams lower in the standings pick off a win here and there against them, the picture gets a bit bleaker.
Side Dishes
In a game with two teams going in opposite directions, Villanova took care of St. John’s 79-59 despite not having Jermaine Samuels due to a sprained left foot. Villanova has now won seven in a row, while the Red Storm has lost seven of nine with the two wins coming against DePaul. Then, in a game that was a classic tale of two halves, Butler had the better one in the second half as they rallied to beat Georgetown 69-64 in the nation’s capital.
In Big Ten play, Michigan managed without Zavier Simpson as they handled Nebraska 79-68 in Lincoln, while Rutgers held off Purdue 70-63 to go to 7-3 in the Big Ten and drop Purdue to 4-6.
The comeback kids of the night were in the SEC. First, Missouri rallied from a 20-point deficit in the second half to edge Georgia 72-69, then Auburn rallied from 19 down at Ole Miss to beat the Rebels in double overtime 83-82. Isaac Okoro made the big plays in the second extra session with a conventional three-point play and a big play at the defensive end after it to cap a 14-point, nine-rebound outing. Meanwhile, can anyone really figure out Tennessee? One game they look good, then they have a game like Tuesday where they lose 63-58 to Texas A&M at home. And there’s also Florida, who lost 78-71 at home to Mississippi State, with both teams now sitting at 4-3 in SEC play.
Other results of note: Cincinnati remained hot by blowing out SMU 65-43 behind 28 points and nine rebounds from Jarron Cumberland; VCU handled arch-rival Richmond 87-68; Rhode Island took care of George Mason 78-64 in Fairfax; Buffalo edged Akron 77-74 to get within a game of the Zips in the MAC; Bowling Green moved to 7-1 in the MAC by holding off Ball State 67-61; and Utah State took care of Wyoming 68-45 in Laramie.
Central Michigan was due to play at Miami (Ohio), but that game and the women’s game scheduled for Wednesday night against Western Michigan were postponed due to new that two students at Miami are being tested for possibly having coronavirus. The games will be re-scheduled, with the move being done out of an abundance of caution.
Tonight’s Menu
The night isn’t full of great matchups, but there are certainly some important games on tap.
- DePaul has a tall order to get some momentum going as they head to Seton Hall (6:30 p.m.), then a Xavier team really needing a win hosts Marquette (8:30 p.m.)
- Big Ten action on the night begins with Michigan State hosting Northwestern (6:30 p.m.), then Penn State hosts Indiana (8:30 p.m.)
- Kentucky hosts Vanderbilt to open the SEC slate (6:30 p.m.), then LSU hosts Alabama (7 p.m.) and Arkansas hosts South Carolina (8:30 p.m.)
- In Atlantic 10 action, Duquesne hosts Dayton (7 p.m.)
- In the American Athletic Conference, Houston tries to stay hot at East Carolina, while Memphis tries to bounce back from two losses as they go to UCF, and two teams that could use a win battle as Temple visits UConn (7 p.m.)
- A good one among the Southern Conference games is Western Carolina hosting UNC Greensboro (7 p.m.)
- In the Big 12, Texas Tech hosts West Virginia and a big one is on tap in Fort Worth as Texas goes to TCU, while Kansas State hosts Oklahoma (8 p.m.), then later on Iowa State hosts Baylor (9 p.m.)
- San Diego State tries to keep winning as they go to New Mexico (9 p.m.), while Nevada goes to Colorado State in other Mountain West action at the same time.
- The night closes with a Pac-12 tilt as Arizona State visits Washington State (11 p.m.)
