Part 4 of our look back at Selection Sundays and NCAA Tournament bubbles over the last 35 years moves into a new decade with our review of 2000-04. Strength of schedule becomes king, Barry Hinson has his first notable snub, and Butler in 2002 and Utah State in 2004 beg the question of just how much do teams like them need to win to get a bid.
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Introduction
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
2000
Last at-large in by seed: 10 Seton Hall (20-9 record), 10 UNLV (23-7), 11 Dayton (22-8), 11 Pepperdine (24-8), 12 Indiana State (22-9), 12 St. Bonaventure (21-9)
Left out: Arizona State (18-12), Bowling Green (21-7), BYU (19-10), Kent State (19-7), Notre Dame (18-14), SW Missouri State (22-10), Villanova (19-12), Virginia (19-11)
Multi-bid conferences: 12
The 2000 NCAA Tournament from this view has long felt like one of the more cold, character-lacking ones in this lifetime. Some of that was a complete lack of upsets in the first round (three lower seeds winning in 32 games, the lowest being No. 11 Pepperdine). Part of it was a lack of great finishes; in fact, the first game of the tourney between Kentucky and St. Bonaventure was arguably the most memorable. Part was the advancement of five teams seeded fifth or higher making regional finals, but only one of them (Tulsa under a coach named Bill Self) really having any kind of Cinderella factor.
Selection Sunday that year was similar. There were 12 multi-bid conferences, but only seven at-large teams were as low as a double-digit seed. Two 13-loss at-large teams got in; neither North Carolina nor Wisconsin was much of a surprise, though, and ironically both would make the Final Four. There really were no surprising selections, even if a few certainly were debatable.
The final teams in by seed included Indiana State, a true bubble team after losing in the Missouri Valley Conference semifinals to eventual Arch Madness champion Creighton. A Valley regular season title, though, and a win at Indiana in the IU Classic (where the Hoosiers previously had a 51-0 record) got the Sycamores into the tourney for the first time since Larry Bird led ISU against Magic Johnson and Michigan State in the 1979 title game. St. Bonaventure joined Indiana State as a 12 seed at-large after a breakthrough season under Jim Baron included wins over USC, Massachusetts, Temple and Xavier (twice). The Bonnies finished second to Temple in the Atlantic 10 East Division and tied West winner Dayton for the second-best record in the league, and their bid made it three A-10 teams in the NCAAs.
Also getting in was Pepperdine, which won the West Coast Conference regular season over Gonzaga that year and played a mostly grueling non-conference schedule with seven top-70 opponents, including a win at RPI No. 25 and NCAA 9 seed Fresno State. Dayton was the No. 2 team out of the Atlantic 10, sparked by an early win over Kentucky and a division title within the league, even as-just like league-mate St. Bonaventure-the Flyers also had four sub-100 losses. Seton Hall’s resume wasn’t great-3-7 against the top 50, 5-8 vs. the top 100. A win at future NCAA 4 seed Syracuse in early February may have put the Pirates over the top, as well as a home win over NCAA 2 seed St. John’s. UNLV may have gotten in for winning the Mountain West tournament, despite the young league not having an automatic bid yet. The Runnin’ Rebels tied Utah for the league regular season crown and put up a solid record, but in the at-large pool they were a classic bubble team. Their two top 50 wins were over NIT team BYU and over No. 50 Utah, they were just 2-6 against the top 50, but also had just one sub-100 loss. The league titles and overall record really sold Vegas more than anything else.
Perhaps the worst at-large pick was Missouri, which somehow was pegged a 9 seed with an 18-12 record and a 3-11 mark against the RPI top 50 (7-11 against the top 100). Nine of the Tigers’ 12 losses were to ranked teams, and a 4-6 stretch to close the season included six losses to teams inside the RPI top 20. On the other hand, a home win over rival Kansas (an 8 seed in the NCAAs that year) and a neutral site victory over NCAA 4 seed Illinois were the only wins over the NCAA tourney field in 14 chances; Mizzou’s third-best win was over NIT club SMU. When quality losses make up most of the argument for a team, that probably should be a red flag. North Carolina also was a very questionable pick, though, with an 18-13 record that included three months of mediocrity after opening the season winning the Maui Invitational. UNC was 3-8 against the top 50, 10-12 vs. the top 100. That the Tar Heels made it all the way to the Final Four changed nothing about their debatable worthiness of being in.
SW Missouri State was the team that deserved a bid most, from this view for sure over their higher-profile state institution. The Bears held a 34 RPI and were 2-4 against the RPI top 50 but 9-6 against the top 100. Comparing to Missouri, the Tigers had the edge in top 50 wins, but extend it to the top 55 and SMS takes a 5-3 lead. Stretch to the top 80 and the Bears win that comparison 9-6. Moreoever, the school now known as Missouri State closed strong at a time when that mattered-ten straight wins before a loss to Creighton in the MVC Tournament final. The Bears non-conference schedule wasn’t awesome, but it wasn’t bad with Fresno State, Saint Louis, SMU, TCU, Toledo, Tulsa and Wyoming. For all the talk about Barry Hinson teams in 2006 and 2007 being big-time snubs, this is one that often gets forgotten but was arguably the biggest of them all.
Besides SMS, the other candidates weren’t great. Vanderbilt held a 19-10 record, a solid 39 RPI and four RPI top 25 wins and was 16-4 at one point in the national rankings. The Commodores finished just 8-8 in the SEC, though, lost six of their final nine games, and didn’t play the most imposing non-conference schedule with six sub-200 opponents. Kent State was not far behind SW Missouri State in the RPI (36) and was 2-0 against the top 50, 7-6 vs. the top 100. The Golden Flashes had two non-Division I wins though and finished behind Bowling Green in the MAC East standings. The Falcons themselves had a 1-2 mark vs. the top 50 and 7-5 against the top 100, but also 10 sub-200 wins were not helpful. BG also played just two top 100 opponents, the best being RPI 94 West Virginia, which pummeled the Falcons by 46 points. Ouch.
Notre Dame held four RPI top 25 wins in nine tries, but also went 1-5 against teams 26-50 and held a 64 RPI. In years later, those top 25 wins might’ve been enough, but at the time a poor overall record made it not surprising to see the Irish out. Villanova won 19 games but had just one top 50 win in eight tries. Virginia’s case was that it defeated North Carolina twice, but the Cavaliers also played a terrible non-conference schedule reflected in their 76 RPI nearly 25 spots behind the worst RPI in the field (Pepperdine at 52). BYU had top 50 wins over state foes Utah and Utah State and was 6-6 against the top 100 but also just 3-3 against teams ranked 101-150.
2001
Last in: 9 Fresno State (25-6), 9 Missouri (19-12), 9 Saint Joseph’s (25-6), 10 Creighton (24-7), 10 Georgetown (23-7), 10 Providence (21-9), 11 Oklahoma State (20-9), 11 Xavier (21-7)
Left out: Alabama (21-10), Connecticut (19-11), Pepperdine (21-8), Richmond (23-6), Southern Mississippi (21-8), UC Irvine (25-4), Toledo (21-10), Tulsa (21-11), Utah (19-11), Villanova (18-12), Wyoming (20-9)
Multi-bid conferences: 10
The selection committee continued to put the squeeze on multi-bid conferences in 2001, as just ten leagues put two or more teams in the NCAA Tournament. Some of that was due to limited conference tournament upsets in leagues that might have had an at-large candidate, but just as sure there were candidates available but bypassed by the committee.
The bottom of the at-large group was mostly solid, witness a strong MVC regular season champion Creighton at 24-7 and Georgetown with a 23-7 record getting 10 seeds and ranking as two of the five lowest-seeded at-larges. The Hoyas did play the 294th-ranked non-conference schedule, it should be noted, and that definitely could’ve been punished, but Georgetown also was 12-7 against the top 100. Providence and Xavier also were hard to argue with, including the Friars holding a top-30 RPI and marks of 3-4 vs. the top 50 and a combined 12-8 against the top 100. Oklahoma State earned perhaps the final bid less than two months after a plane crash involving two crew members plus passengers associated with the team. The Cowboys did play a pillow-soft non-conference schedule that could’ve easily been punished, but they also faced a brutal schedule late with four games in eight days in late February due to rescheduling after the plane crash, and OSU won all four of them on the way to a 10-6 Big 12 mark.
The more questionable inclusions were actually well in the field, as a 16-14 Georgia team didn’t just get a bid but was awarded an 8 seed. The Bulldogs got in on what was the top-ranked strength of schedule by a wide margin, though we would argue loudly that the selection committee didn’t put enough emphasis on how a team performed against that schedule and two games above .500 shouldn’t cut it. If the committee some eight years earlier was making it clear that it was going to value regular season conference championships, the 2001 committee seemed just as intent on making a statement on strength of schedule. Committee chairman and Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese said as much after the selections: “Our committee feels very strongly about non-conference play. In fact, I think you’re going to see the committee taking an even stronger stance prior to next season’s tournament.”
Also questionable: Missouri went 18-12 against D-I foes, 3-10 against the RPI top 50 (granted, the three wins were inside the top 25), a measly 4-11 against the top 100, 3-8 on the road, and somehow was rewarded with a 9 seed. Georgia Tech also parlayed a 17-12 record and 8-8 ACC mark into an 8 seed, while Penn State at 19-11 overall and 7-9 in the Big Ten picked up a 7 seed thanks to a non-conference win at Kentucky and home victories over Pittsburgh and Temple.
Alabama was the most noticeable team not in the field. The Crimson Tide was ranked for a good share of the season, but was left out for two reasons, per Tranghese. “They were 8 -8 in the conference, but they played in the weaker (SEC West) division,” said Tranghese. “They (also) played only two non-conference games against teams with an RPI of less than 100.” The Tide’s non-conference slate was ranked No. 297 in the country. A 12-1 start to the season included not a single win over a team inside the RPI top 100, and only one of those wins on the road. Bama also lost five of its final six games.
It was disappointing to see UC Irvine get left out, even if predictable. The Anteaters went 25-4, won the Big West regular season crown and went 2-1 against the Pac-10, defeating NCAA tourney 8 seed California and Washington and losing by five at NCAA 4 seed UCLA. UCI had just one top 50 win and was 2-2 against the top 100, and indeed 16 of its 22 D-I wins were over teams ranked 151 or higher. Much like Murray State some 14 years later, it’s just troubling when the assumption of teams with limited opportunities against top competition is that if they don’t get many chances, then they’re not good enough to win them. Irvine was 10-2 on the road that year and won the league over a Utah State team that would finish with 28 wins. Its performance against the Pac-10 should’ve shown a team capable of competing in a league like that. In 1995, the Anteaters might have had a chance. By 2001, they had virtually no shot.
Connecticut certainly could’ve been in. The Huskies’ ledger included three top 25 wins (including ones at home against NCAA 2 seed Arizona and NCAA 3 seed Boston College) and respectable marks of 4-6 vs. the top 50 and 8-10 against the top 100. UConn was likely hurt by an 8-8 Big East mark overall and a high 54 RPI that included nine games against sub-150 teams, seven of them out of conference.
The Huskies also lost twice to Villanova, which had one of the lowest RPIs of any team missing the tourney (45) but went just 3-8 vs. the top 50 and after a 10-2 start was just 8-10 the rest of the way. Eight of those 10 losses came by double-digit margins, some in ugly fashion. Richmond was even better in the RPI (43) and was a respectable 5-3 against the RPI top 100 but was cited for three ‘bad’ losses to teams ranked 180 or below in the RPI. With a Colonial regular season title plus an 11-3 mark against the top 150, though, the Spiders are another that probably would’ve been in if this were 1995.
Toledo also just missed for the second time in three years, as a hot start-12-3 including wins over NCAA teams Cincinnati (a 5 seed), Creighton (10 seed), George Mason (14 seed) plus Auburn and eventual NIT semifinalist Detroit Mercy-was torpedoed by MAC foes, mainly a four-game losing streak in conference in January. The Rockets dropped all the way to 84 in the RPI, a shame given their 5-4 record vs. the top 100, but a 3-5 record vs. teams 101-150 will take that toll. That offset respectable numbers against the top 50 (4-6) and top 100 (8-10). Tulsa finished 0-6 vs. the top 50 and 1-8 against the NCAA Tournament field, and an 8-4 mark against teams 51-100 wasn’t enough. Southern Mississippi won six straight before falling in the Conference USA semifinals, but was just 1-4 against the top 50.
2002
Last in: 10 Michigan State (19-11), 10 Pepperdine (22-8), 11 Boston College (20-11), 11 Southern Illinois (26-7), 11 Wyoming (21-8), 12 Missouri (21-11), 12 Tulsa (26-6), 12 Utah (21-8)
Left out: Ball State (20-11), Bowling Green (24-8), Butler (25-5), Memphis (22-9), Minnesota (17-12), Syracuse (20-11), UNLV (20-10), Utah State (22-6), Virginia (17-11)
Multi-bid conferences: 11
Taking a first glance at the final at-large seeds in the 2002 NCAA Tournament, one might’ve thought most gave a thumbs up to the job done by the selection committee. The final eight teams in the field came from seven different conferences, including the Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Mountain West (two), Missouri Valley, West Coast and Western Athletic Conference.
On the contrary, Selection Sunday this year had quite a few cranky, and that was even before the almost universal panning of ESPN’s Season on the Brink movie it debuted that night after the selections. A continued lack of forthrightness from the committee, as well as the mystery around the RPI and a belief by quite a few that it was a tool to further the big boys’ interests, continued to be big stories around the selections. Little illustrated that better than Gonzaga being ranked sixth in the country with a 29-3 record, yet receiving a 6 seed in the West Regional.
The committee’s work certainly wasn’t all bad, just more of a mixed bag with a few really rotten apples. Michigan State piled up six top 25 wins, trumping otherwise forgettable numbers including 5-5 vs. teams 51-100. Pepperdine received an at-large for the second time in three years, this time with what was the fifth-ranked non-conference strength of schedule in the country. Tulsa made it with a bunch of wins (a sparkling 26-6 record) and a strong RPI (33) but also was 0-for-5 against the RPI top 50. The Golden Hurricane were the far-and-away No. 2 in the WAC, though, losing out on a terrific race with Hawaii, and were selected and defeated Marquette in the first round.
Southern Illinois and Wyoming both got in on the strength of just-good-enough numbers and regular season conference titles. The Salukis were 3-2 against the top 50 and 5-3 vs. the top 100, but also had four sub-100 losses. SIU also took advantage of one high-profile chance at home, defeating eventual NCAA 5 seed and national runner-up Indiana in early December. Amazing what happens when a quality team from outside college sports’ top tier gets chances at home against high profile teams. With their NCAA bid, the Salukis would roll all the way to the Sweet 16. Wyoming was easily the lowest RPI at-large team in (63) but won the Mountain West regular season and was 3-4 vs. the top 50 and 7-7 against the top 100. It was a stressful Selection Sunday for the Cowboys, who just missed the year before and appeared to labor at times under the pressure to get to the Big Dance. A poor non-conference schedule with just three top 100 opponents could’ve bitten them this time too; it didn’t, and they also took advantage with a win in the NCAAs against that criminally underseeded Gonzaga team.
The 2002 selections had some curious choices. UNC Charlotte was definitely was one of them, the 49ers making it with an 18-11 record and a 1-7 mark against the top 50. Charlotte played a good non-conference schedule, but this looked plainly like a team that got in (and a way too high 9 seed) because athletic director Judy Rose was on the committee, more than because of performance. Boston College also went just 8-8 in the Big East, played a middling at best non-league schedule, and like UNCC didn’t finish particularly strong (5-5 in last 10 games), but apparently a sweep of NCAA 5 seed Miami (Fla.) was enough; the next best wins were over 17-12 Villanova. Missouri snuck in for the third straight year, stumbling into the Dance losing five of its final nine, and the Tigers essentially got in on the strength of three wins, defeating NCAA 2 seed Alabama and Xavier in November and Oklahoma State in late February. Beyond that, Mizzou had just two other wins of so much as the top 100 variety. The Tigers would take full advantage of that break and go all the way to the Elite Eight.
Butler could’ve easily taken any of those three teams’ place. The Bulldogs presented one of the more unique cases the committee has ever seen. Butler put up a gaudy record-25 wins, all against Division I opponents-won the newly renamed Horizon League, and was even in the national rankings for a while during the season. The Bulldogs started 13-0, defeating Washington to win the Top of the World Classic, winning at Purdue and defeating Indiana to win the Hoosier Classic. Their five losses were by a combined 18 points.
Butler also carried one big scarlet letter, though-an RPI of 77-and a few other question marks in the form of just one top 50 game (a win) and five top 100 opponents. There were some name wins, but Purdue and Washington had down years-really down. So did Indiana State, which won a game in the NCAA Tournament the year before but sunk to 6-22. So did Evansville, which had its worst record in 65 years (no kidding). The Bulldogs’ Horizon tourney quarterfinal loss by a point to Wisconsin-Green Bay also was to a team with a 9-21 record that year, certainly not a great final argument.
“They were definitely a team we struggled with,” said committee chair and N.C. State athletic director Lee Fowler. It probably shouldn’t have been that hard. Butler was 4-1 against the top 100 and 9-2 vs. the top 150, and should’ve been a known quantity too after its performance in the NCAAs the previous two years (routing Wake Forest in the first round the year before; losing at the buzzer to Florida in 2000) plus some big regular season wins then. Its 77 RPI would’ve been the worst ever for an at-large team, but if the committee was going to give a bid to such a team, the Bulldogs were much more worthy than the New Mexico team from three years earlier. It’s hard not to conclude that leaving Butler out was much more an exercise of looking for the negative in a team than seeing the positive in them.
Syracuse received the dishonor of being the first Big East team to win 20 games and not get in the tourney. The Orangemen were down at 67 in the RPI, though, played a soft non-conference schedule (seven opponents at 187 or worse in the RPI) and went 4-6 against the top 50 and 7-11 vs. the top 100. Syracuse did post four wins against NCAA tourney teams and was one game better than Boston College in the Big East, but if it was an either/or, the Eagles won at the Carrier Dome in early March.
Memphis had the record to get in and won Conference USA’s National Division easily, but finished poor (2-5 in its last seven games) and was weighed down by a schedule that included seven sub-200 or non-Division I non-conference games. The Tigers also were 0-5 against the top 50, 6-8 vs. the top 100 and sported a RPI of 69. Utah State was 22-7 and tied UC Irvine for the Big West regular season crown. The Aggies also were a good 5-2 against the top 100 but were hurt badly by five sub-100 losses. Virginia was just 2-7 against the top 50 and 5-9 vs. the top 100, meaning a late February win over defending national champion and soon-to-be NCAA 1 seed Duke could only take the Cavaliers so far.
The year also was one of missed opportunities for the Mid-American Conference. One of the best records left out belonged to Bowling Green, which put together a stout 24-8 mark, defeated NCAA 9 seed Mississippi in its opener and also had wins over Michigan and a Detroit Mercy program strong at the time. The Falcons lost six times in MAC play, though, well behind East Division champion Kent State, and the computers showed just one top 50 win and a 4-4 mark total vs. the top 100 plus four sub-100 losses. Ball State, meanwhile, opened the season defeating top-10 Kansas and UCLA in the Maui Classic and moved as high as 15th in the national polls. The Cardinals also lost six times in MAC play, though, went 7-6 down the stretch and finished with five sub-100 losses. The committee certainly could’ve selected at least one of them, especially coach Dan Dakich’s Falcons, but both had just enough road struggles against lesser teams in the MAC to be left out.
2003
Last in: 10 Alabama (17-11), 10 Arizona State (19-11), 10 Auburn (20-11), 10 Colorado (20-11), 11 Southern Illinois (24-6), 12 BYU (23-8), 12 Butler (25-5)
Left out: Boston College (18-11), College of Charleston (24-7), Seton Hall (17-12), Tennessee (17-11), Texas Tech (18-12)
Multi-bid conferences: 12
The 2003 NCAA Tournament selection committee did one of the better jobs selecting and seeding any committee has done in the last 20 years. It is unfortunate that part of its legacy was a big ‘whoops’ noticed right after the brackets came out.
After an egregious snub the year before, Butler was one of the final teams in this year, giving the Horizon League two teams (the Bulldogs and Wisconsin-Milwaukee) and both with 12 seeds. Unlike the year before, the Bulldogs had little for name recognition wins, but their 35 RPI included a 1-3 mark against the top 50 (the win over UW-Milwaukee) but 4-1 vs. 51-100, plus just one sub-100 loss. Butler won the regular season title in a respected league, what was the 14th-ranked conference that year (per collegerpi.com). It was a deserved bid, and one the Bulldogs would make good use of with a run to the Sweet 16.
Southern Illinois was one spot ahead of Butler in the RPI and also got in as a second team out of the Missouri Valley. The Salukis leaned on a late victory over nationally ranked Creighton, a memorable buzzer-beater win over UW-Milwaukee in the first-ever ESPN BracketBusters, and a run to the MVC tourney final. Otherwise, SIU was just 3-5 against the RPI top 100. Teams like Butler and Southern Illinois played a role, though, in 12 different conferences putting multiple teams in the tournament.
BYU also got in with a seed (12) that wasn’t far from its RPI number (19). The Cougars were just 2-6 against the RPI top 50, though 9-1 against teams 51-100. The 12 seed was a bit harsh, but that wasn’t even the biggest indignity on this Selection Sunday. BYU was part of one of the all-time committee errors, as the Cougars were seeded in a regional that would’ve played a Friday/Sunday schedule, which goes directly against the school’s Mormon beliefs about playing on Sundays. The committee considered options including switching BYU with fellow 12 seed Weber State, but ultimately put contingency plans into place of moving the Cougars to a different regional site if they advanced to the Sweet 16. BYU lost to Connecticut in the first round, making those plans moot.
While BYU, Butler and Southern Illinois were the three lowest-seeded at-larges, Auburn may well have been the most controversial pick. Dick Vitale himself said of the Tigers, “I don’t know what the selection committee was thinking in inviting the Tigers” and that “the preconference schedule was a joke.” Indeed, the Tigers’ 20-11 record included just a 2-8 showing vs. the top 50 and 6-11 total against the top 100. There also was a Charmin-soft non-conference schedule that included an 18-point loss to NIT club Western Michigan, and just one top-100 win (Troy State). A 36 RPI was essentially Auburn’s only redeeming quality. Rival Alabama was at least 3-5 vs. the top 25 and 5-7 against the top 50, though the Crimson Tide also had a hideous 1-8 road record (4-9 road/neutral total). A season-opening win over eventual NCAA 1 seed Oklahoma and home performance carried Bama a long way. North Carolina State also received a bid despite a 2-8 record against the top 50, though it was balanced some by an 8-3 mark vs. 51-100.
Still, who would’ve taken their places? Boston College, Seton Hall and Texas Tech had middling records and were a combined 6-20 against the RPI top 50 (1-5, 2-7 and 3-8, respectively). That the Eagles and Pirates both went 10-6 in Big East play-including BC tying Connecticut for a division title-didn’t hide those numbers. Tennessee was 4-8 vs. the top 50, including three top 25 wins, but lost five of seven down the stretch. The Volunteers were maybe the biggest snub, but how much grumbling is anyone going to do for a 17-11 team?
UNLV had the highest RPI of any team left out (40) but was just 2-5 against the top 50 and didn’t distinguish itself at all in the Mountain West with an 8-6 mark. College of Charleston put up a strong record and won the Great Alaska Shootout to get on the national radar early in the season. A bid was probably there for the taking, and the Cougars also posted the best record in the two-division Southern Conference, but also were incredibly just 3-5 against teams 101-200 in the RPI, with a 3-2 mark vs. the top 100 not enough buffer for that. Sixteen of Charleston’s 22 D-I wins were against sub-200 teams.
The committee dealt with some real curveballs this season, including definite at-large selection Georgia withdrawing from consideration the week before selections were made, plus WAC regular season champion Fresno State doing the same the week before, both due to confirmed cases of academic fraud. The bottom line is the committee didn’t have many great options left among teams left out, but it still got it right this year rewarding teams like Butler and Southern Illinois over others with decidedly mediocre resumes.
2004
Last in: 10 Dayton (24-8), 10 Louisville (20-9), 10 South Carolina (23-10), 11 Air Force (22-6), 11 Richmond (20-12), 12 BYU (21-8), 13 UTEP (24-7)
Left out: Boston University (23-5), Colorado (18-10), Florida State (18-13), Iowa State (17-12), LSU (18-10), Michigan (18-11), Oklahoma (19-10), Troy State (24-6), Utah State (25-3), Virginia (17-12)
Multi-bid conferences: 11
The story of Selection Sunday 2004 was Utah State, which made some unwanted history and begged the question: if a team’s schedule doesn’t grade out highly, whether that be the fault of their conference, or perhaps some negligence in scheduling, just how many games do they need to win to get an at-large bid?
The Aggies’ 25-3 record in 2003-04 was and to this day is the best ever to be left out of the tournament in the 64+ team era. Utah State was snubbed despite being in the national rankings the final seven weeks of the regular season. It dominated the Big West, the 18th-ranked conference that year, defeated BYU in the regular season and split with a Pacific team that wound up winning a first round game in the NCAA Tournament. The Aggies were 25-2 until falling to sixth-seeded Cal State Northridge by a point in the Big West semifinals, the tourney’s double-bye format that was supposed to protect the top two seeds clearly not serving that purpose.
Utah State defeated fellow bubble team BYU; despite that, there is no denying the rest of the schedule was not as accomplished: 21 wins came against teams ranked 153 or worse in the RPI. (For a comparison, their four top 150 wins were five less than Manhattan had when it received an unlikely bid with a 25-4 record in 1995) There’s no question that the Big West was a poor league at this time, and it wasn’t as if this was a surprise-the year before it ranked 22nd in the RPI and seven of its 10 teams were ranked 184 or worse then. It’s hard to argue with one who says USU should’ve done more to beef up its schedule instead of playing seven of 10 non-conference games at home. Still, the Aggies won 10 road games, won a regular season conference title and lost three games all season. It wasn’t an easy resume to evaluate, but when in doubt, the committee should err on the side of rewarding sustained winning to the tune of an .893 winning percentage.
Other than Utah State, the West actually did quite well getting fence-sitting teams in. UTEP was the final at-large team in based on seeds, an incredible rise for a program that was 6-24 the year before. The Miners tied Nevada for the WAC regular season crown and lost to the Wolf Pack in the conference tourney final. Though holding just one top 50 win, UTEP was 5-7 against the top 100 and played just four sub-200 teams. The Miners’ bid meant there were 11 multi-bid conferences this year, one less than the previous season.
Air Force made the NCAAs for the first time since 1962. The academy was selected with a hefty 70 RPI, but the Falcons won the Mountain West regular season title by two games and held three top 50 wins, or two more than a Michigan State team that received a way-high 7 seed with an 18-11 record. Air Force could undoubtedly have been punished for no less than six sub-300 opponents, but considering the Falcons were 12-16 the year before and hadn’t posted a winning season in 26 years, a little discretion in evaluating the slate was reasonable. BYU was in as a 12 seed for the second straight year. Like so many teams this year, the Cougars seemed to be carried by a single big non-conference win, a technically neutral (in Salt Lake City) win over eventual NCAA 2 seed and Final Four squad Oklahoma State. Otherwise, the Mountain West’s No. 2 regular season team was just 2-4 against the top 50, lost at Utah State and notably was drilled on the road at NCAA 3 seed N.C. State by 27 in January.
It has happened more than a few times in the tourney’s history where the most questionable selections are not just among the lowest at-large teams, but also the tier above them. Teams in that category this year included the aforementioned Michigan State, a 7 seed with a 1-9 mark vs. the top 50 and only a little better 5-9 against the top 100. Alabama was an 8 seed with only a 17-12 record, and though the Crimson Tide had a lofty 26 RPI, they were just 4-11 against the RPI top 50 and 3-9 against the NCAA tourney field. Bama posted non-conference wins at home over NCAA tourney teams UNC Charlotte and Wisconsin and also won at NCAA 2 seed Mississippi State late in the season, almost certainly the clincher for its bid.
Arizona received a 9 seed going just 1-3 vs. the top 50 and 6-6 vs. the top 100, plus with three sub-100 losses. The Wildcats should’ve been a very borderline selection; they finished 11-7 in a diminished Pac-10, were 0-5 against the league’s top two teams, and went 7-6 in their last 13 games. An early December neutral court win over NCAA 3 seed Texas appears to have put Lute Olson’s team over the top. Richmond was 2-10 against the RPI top 50, 8-11 against the top 100, but clearly received credit for a non-conference schedule that included an almost-incredible eight teams ranked in the RPI top 60. The Spiders also won 11 games at road or neutral sites, including eight true road games led by a victory at Kansas in January.
Besides Utah State, the biggest snub was LSU. The Tigers held a solid 38 RPI and were a more than respectable 6-6 against the RPI top 50. LSU was hurt by a light, home-loaded non-conference schedule that included a loss at 9-18 Houston in its one trip outside the state. The Tigers also lost six of their last seven to finish the season. After them, the pickings were slim with a number of poor marks against the top 50 and even top 100. Michigan was 2-6 against the top 50, 4-10 against the top 100. Oklahoma was 2-8 vs. the top 50 and 5-10 vs. the top 100. Colorado was 2-7 against the top 50 and 6-9 vs. the top 100.
Florida State went 4-11 vs. the top 25, but played no top 50 games and was 7-13 against the top 100. Similarly, Virginia was 3-11 against the top 25 but played no top 50 games. The Cavaliers were 5-1 against teams 51-100 which gave them a chance, but the non-conference schedule was loaded with eight games against teams of RPI 156 or higher. Notre Dame was 4-8. The Irish did finish strong (7-3 in their last 10) but were just 7-11 against the top 100, played a weak non-conference schedule and also had a sub-200 loss to Central Michigan. Atlantic Sun champion Troy State deserved a look, especially after winning 13 straight before falling to a strong Central Florida team in its conference tournament final. The Trojans were 3-3 against the top 100, but lost at LSU early in the season, played two non-Division I opponents and also were hamstrung by a 20-game conference schedule.
Coming up Friday: looking back at the 2005-09 tournaments
