Part 5 of our series recalling, researching and reviewing NCAA Tournament Selection Sundays of the past looks at the years 2005-09. Included: Jim Nantz and Billy Packer tee off on the MVC and CAA in 2006, the same year the Valley got four bids but probably (our opinion) should’ve had six.
Previous:
Introduction
Part 1: 1985-89
Part 2: 1990-94
Part 3: 1995-99
Part 4: 2000-04
2005
Last at-large in by seed: 9 Iowa State (18-11 record), 10 Iowa (21-11), 10 North Carolina State (19-13), 10 Saint Mary’s (25-8), 11 Northern Iowa (21-10), 11 UAB (21-10), 11 UCLA (18-10)
Left out: Buffalo (22-9), DePaul (19-10), Indiana (15-13), Maryland (16-12), Miami (Ohio) (19-10), Notre Dame (17-11), Saint Joseph’s (19-11)
Multi-bid conferences: 12
The selection process received a big change in 2005, with the age-old RPI getting some work done. The formula was (correctly, we would surmise) changed to give an extra bonus to winning road games. Almost immediately, bellyaching commenced when teams like Vermont showed up in the top 30 of the RPI, perhaps cementing the idea that a rating is only as good as how much it preserves preconceived notions of who the best teams should be. (And never mind that the Catamounts would win a game in the NCAA Tournament as a 13 seed). In some ways, it would feel like selection committees would start de-emphasizing the RPI as soon as they corrected it to get it closer to what it probably should’ve been.
The general buzz after the selections in 2005 was that there were few complaints. That wasn’t exactly true; there was griping by some TV analysts, there were some reasonably debatable picks, and one conference especially felt spurned. When all was said and done, though, the selection committee mostly did a solid job in a situation where there were some tough choices.
UAB, Northern Iowa and UCLA were the three lowest-seeded at-larges, with Iowa, North Carolina State and Saint Mary’s a line ahead of them. Iowa State actually was supposed to be a 10 seed, but due to bracketing principles the Cyclones moved up a line while rival Iowa slipped back a seed line, per committee chairman Bob Bowlsby, who also was the athletic director at Iowa.
Northern Iowa was a surprising selection to some as the third team out of the Missouri Valley. At first glance by the numbers, the Panthers were 2-6 against the top 50, 6-7 vs. the top 100, and also had three sub-100 losses, including one below 200. UNI also defeated a Southern Illinois team that ranked in the top 20 in the RPI, won twice over a Missouri State that was just outside the RPI top 50, and won a Bracket Busters game against Western Michigan in February. It may have been between the Panthers and Wichita State (RPI 45) for a spot, but Northern Iowa won in Wichita on the final day of the MVC regular season as Ben Jacobson-not the current Panthers coach, but a star player of the same name-hit a buzzer-beating three-pointer for the win. Northern Iowa also faced three NCAA tourney teams out of conference and defeated NCAA 9 seed Iowa State by 17 in November, took 7 seed Cincinnati to double overtime and lost at 10 seed Iowa by three.
The Panthers were in a number of projections before Selection Sunday, but their pick was still blasted afterwards by ESPN heads, namely Jay Bilas, Digger Phelps and Dick Vitale, who felt Maryland and Notre Dame should’ve been in ahead of UNI. Never mind, of course, that panel included a former Notre Dame coach, a parent of two alums of the school, and a former player in Maryland’s Atlantic Coast Conference. Some others also theorized that Bowlsby helped grease the skids for both Iowa-his current school which made the field with a 7-9 Big Ten mark-and Northern Iowa, where he was once the athletic director. It was pretty ridiculous.
Speaking of the ACC, North Carolina State was no less a debatable choice than UNI, with one top 25 win and a 4-8 record vs. the top 50, three sub-100 losses, plus a non-conference schedule filled with pastries in the form of no less than nine teams with RPIs of 165 or worse, six in the sub-200 range. A win over NCAA 2 seed Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament may have wrapped up a spot for the Wolfpack.
Saint Mary’s laid the groundwork for a bid way back in November in the preseason NIT, where the Gaels won at California in the second round to become a surprise visitor to Madison Square Garden. SMC would go on to 23 Division I wins, and though 19 were outside the top 100 and five of the losses were to sub-100 opponents, the Gaels also held a sterling 9-4 road record and topped it off with a win over Gonzaga in WCC play. UAB got in despite going 0-5 against the RPI top 50 and 1-5 against the field with a lone win over SWAC champ Alabama A&M. The Blazers were 6-1 against teams 51-100, though, and won five straight to play their way into consideration before a close loss to eventual champion Louisville in the Conference USA semifinals. It definitely may not have hurt that UAB built up some familiarity the year before, when it advanced to the Sweet 16 including a win over top seed Kentucky while playing a relentless, thoroughly entertaining style under Mike Anderson. UCLA slipped in despite a 1-7 record against the top 50, but the Bruins were 7-0 against teams 51-100.
The feeling of some that there weren’t many protests of the bracket may have been helped by class acts like Mike Brey and Phil Martelli heading teams that just missed, as Notre Dame and Saint Joseph’s were among the teams that were close but left out. “You can say all you want-we had opportunities,” said Brey after the selections. “You had chances to nail it and we didn’t nail it.” Martelli also was philosophical after the bracket was announced. “It wasn’t like I was throwing stuff at the TV or anything,” he said to Dick Jerardi of the Philadelphia Daily News. “In the end, it was our 3-8 non-conference schedule. I trusted the committee last year and I trust them this year.”
The other part was that, once again, the resumes of teams left out weren’t strong. Maryland was just 16-12, and its case rested on essentially two wins over Duke. Those were unquestionably solid chips considering Duke was a 1 seed in the NCAAs, but the overall resume didn’t grade out that well with a 3-4 record vs. the top 50 and just 6-11 against the top 100. Notre Dame was down at 73 in the RPI, and though it was 4-6 vs. the top 50, a 7-8 mark vs. the top 100 plus two sub-100 losses and a 278 non-conference strength of schedule meant the Irish (who also lost four of five to close the season) was probably one win short. St. Joe’s was without a single top 50 win (0-3) and was just 4-9 vs. the top 100.
The Mid-American Conference also was unhappy on Selection Sunday, and had reason to be, though it probably could blame only its own members for it. The MAC was the 10th-rated league in the RPI that year, three spots behind the MVC, another league having a strong season. The Valley parlayed its surge into three bids; the MAC received just one. Both Buffalo and Miami (Ohio) just missed, including the Bulls edged out in the cruelest of ways, falling by a point at the buzzer in overtime to Ohio in the MAC tourney final. Bowlsby suggested the day after the selections that “some of the (conference) tournament upsets may have affected the MAC teams, including Miami and Buffalo.”
The feeling here was that Buffalo deserved to be in the NCAAs, having won 9 of 10 games before that loss that should’ve marked them as a hot team capable of doing some damage. In truth, the Bulls’ numbers were lacking some as they were just 1-5 vs. the top 50 (two of those at home) and 6-8 against the top 100. Miami had the highest RPI (38) of any team left out, and was 3-4 vs. the top 50 and 6-7 against the top 100. It also opened the season with name-brand wins over Purdue and at Xavier, though both would stumble to seasons well below their norms. Miami also won a Bracket Busters game at Wichita State in February that built momentum for their candidacy. Two sub-200 losses may have cost the Redhawks, but what also hurt was a MAC that, as so often has been the case, was filled with parity. Miami won the East Division and its 12-6 league mark was the best in the MAC, but no less than six teams posted 11-7 records, including four in the East. There were plenty of very good teams in the MAC that year, and in fact four of them qualified for the then 40-team NIT, but inability to separate may have hurt the chances of both Miami and Buffalo as much as anything else.
2006
Last in: 10 Alabama (17-12), 10 North Carolina State (21-9), 10 Northern Iowa (23-9), 10 Seton Hall (18-11), 11 George Mason (23-7), 12 Texas A&M (21-8), 12 Utah State (23-8), 13 Air Force (24-6), 13 Bradley (20-10)
Left out: Cincinnati (19-12), Creighton (19-9), Florida State (19-9), Hofstra (24-6), Maryland (19-12), Michigan (18-10), Missouri State (20-8)
Multi-bid conferences: 12
Selection Sunday 2006 was one of the most explosive ones of them all in the nearly 40-year era that the bracket has been revealed to TV fanfare, since CBS began its selection show in 1982. From the season that 2005-06 was, the selections and reaction to them promised to be entertaining; it shouldn’t have been quite as heated as it was. However, a concoction of more worthy at-large teams than bids, a well-meaning committee trying to grasp just what an updated RPI wrought the year before, some surprising conferences offering multiple at-large caliber teams, and a TV media dominated by people who have no understanding of such conferences, all caused fireworks when the bracket was released.
A big story this year was the emergence of the Missouri Valley Conference and Colonial Athletic Association. The MVC was the sixth-rated conference in the country that year-even ahead of the Pac-10- and put a record four teams in the field. The CAA was not far behind-10th in the NCAA’s computers, per the organization’s RPI data archive-and tied its best-ever showing with two bids. And yet, both leagues had plenty of reason to still be disappointed.
Missouri State is widely remembered as the most jilted team this year and among the most noted of all-time. Many can recite it: a 21 RPI, the lowest ever to be left out of the field. The Bears were almost certainly hurt by the committee not knowing what to do with a stronger-than-ever Missouri Valley Conference, which received four bids (including way-underseeded Bradley) but likely deserved six. The Bears were 4-8 against the RPI top 50 and 5-8 against the top 100 per the NCAA, not great numbers, but also with not a single loss worse than on the road by four at 45 RPI and NCAA 8 seed Arkansas. They also won eight of nine down the stretch before an MVC Tournament quarterfinal loss to Northern Iowa, which was solidly in the NCAA field as a 10 seed. The bottom line is a 21 RPI and a finish like MSU’s in a major conference in the top six nationally would’ve been in the field, and everyone knew it.
Hofstra was not far from Missouri State; the CAA should’ve been a three-bid league in this year that George Mason made the Final Four and UNC Wilmington was a strong 9 seed, but the Flying Dutchmen, er, Pride played a low-rated non-conference schedule that was the difference. Many complained Hofstra should’ve been in ahead of a George Mason team it defeated twice, but the Patriots tied UNCW for the regular season title, while Hofstra was a game behind both. Still, if the committee wasn’t going to punish Air Force’s non-league slate (more on that in a bit), why would it have been held against Hofstra, which had a clearly better resume (three top 50 wins, 7-5 against the top 100) than the Falcons?
Creighton also was a team that most forgot about even in 2006, but by the numbers should’ve been in. The Bluejays tied for second in the very-strong Valley, drilled George Mason by 20 on the road in November, and blew out rival Nebraska, winning by 26 over a team that would win 19 games and get to the NIT. Their numbers (6-6 against the top 50 and 8-7 vs. the top 100) would’ve screamed 8 or 9 seed if they were an ACC or Big 12 team; instead, the Jays were left out, and hardly a peep was heard about it mainly because of how far-out of an idea a 5- or 6-bid MVC might’ve seemed.
This also was the year of George Mason’s famous run from just getting in all the way to the Final Four. The Patriots flat-out deserved their spot, as CAA co-champions with UNC Wilmington, with a 26 RPI and a 2-4 mark vs. the top 50 and 8-6 against the top 100. Mason also earned a huge road win at eventual MVC regular season champion Wichita State in Bracket Busters.
Of course, far be it from the sport’s media to understand the quality of these teams and their leagues. Jim Nantz and Billy Packer went virtually ballistic on CBS’s selection show, ripping the CAA and MVC, the RPI, and stumping for more ACC teams in the field (of course), such as Florida State and Maryland. Nantz: “Something has gone haywire with this computer system-I mean, the ACC and the Big 12 generated the same number of bids as the Missouri Valley? I don’t buy it.” Packer: “You put Florida State and Maryland in their league, I’d like to know where they’d end up. Do you see any of those four (MVC) teams taking Duke to overtime, at Duke (as FSU did) and beating them on their home court?” More Packer: “Do you think for one second that a Louisville or a Notre Dame (15-13 on the season), two teams that obviously got no consideration whatsoever, wouldn’t be favored against the likes of teams from the Missouri Valley or the Colonial?…(those two leagues) end up with six representatives in the tourney and the ACC and Big 12 end up with eight. You’ve got to be kidding.”
What Packer didn’t mention is that Florida State’s candidacy was hurt by a 300+ rated non-conference schedule, that their win over RPI No. 1 Duke was their only victory over an NCAA Tournament team and was one of just two wins total against so much as the RPI top 75 (the other was against Maryland). Nor did he mention Maryland’s 2-7 record against the top 50, its 7-12 mark vs. the top 100 or its 4-9 road/neutral record. Or that Louisville was 2-10 against the top 50. Or that Notre Dame with its 95 RPI was 1-10 against the top 50 and 5-13 vs. the top 100.
Among more serious, nuanced discussion of the final picks, Air Force, Texas A&M and Utah State were the most controversial. Air Force in particular played a very poorly rated schedule and had not a single top 50 win, but the Falcons got in because the committee flat-out said it liked the way AFA played, almost certainly referring to its Princeton-style offense. “When we started to talk about Air Force, we asked the question, ‘What is a really tough team to beat?’” said committee chairman and Virginia athletic director Craig Littlepage. “We watched Air Force and felt, at the end of it, they presented us with a unique team to beat.”
Huh? To be fair, Air Force was 5-3 against the top 100, and it had a shiny 24-6 record. Of all the reasons to put a team in, though, this was one of the flimsiest. The lack of a single top-50 win combined with a 270th ranked non-conference schedule including a full seven teams with an RPI of 160 or worse (including five of 291 or lower) should’ve kept the Falcons out, especially when non-conference slate hurt a team like Florida State.
Texas A&M also played a bad non-conference schedule, but also saw it overlooked due to a 10-6 mark in the Big 12. The Aggies were 1-5 against the RPI top 50, though 7-7 vs. the top 100, but they also finished strong with eight straight wins before losing in the Big 12 tourney. Utah State held a 23-8 record, finished second to Nevada in the WAC, and in some ways its ledger wasn’t as strong as in 2004 when it was left out with a 25-3 mark. Stew Morrill’s team did quietly counter a 1-2 record vs. the top 50 with a 6-3 mark against teams 51-100, though, and losing to Nevada in overtime in the WAC final the night before Selection Sunday was a strong final impression considering the Wolf Pack would receive a 5 seed in the NCAAs the next day. The USU Aggies receiving a bid meant that 12 conferences received at least two bids in the 2006 tourney.
Besides the collection of CAA and MVC teams that missed out, Cincinnati probably had the best case for a spot. The Bearcats were 4-8 vs. the RPI top 50 (still two less top 50 wins than Creighton held, it should be noted) and 11-11 against the top 100. Besides the strength of so many unlikely candidates, what also cost Cincy this year was a 3-7 road record, a 6-10 finish and that it was the ninth team in a Big East that already put eight teams in the NCAA field.
2007
Last in: 10 Georgia Tech (20-11), 10 Texas Tech (21-12), 11 Stanford (18-12), 12 Arkansas (21-13), 12 Illinois (23-11), 12 Old Dominion (24-8)
Left out: Air Force (23-8), Bradley (20-12), Drexel (23-8), Florida State (20-12), Kansas State (22-11), Missouri State (22-10), Syracuse (22-10), Washington (19-13), West Virginia (22-9)
Multi-bid conferences: 12
After the success of the Colonial Athletic Association and Missouri Valley Conference backed up the respect they received on Selection Sunday 2006, some might’ve expected the 2006 NCAA Tournament would be a landmark moment in the way future selection committees looked at such teams. Instead, over the next few years selection committees seemed collectively intent on trying to make sure such underdog advancements didn’t happen again any time soon.
For the third straight year, twelve different conferences put at least two teams in the NCAA tourney, but this year was different. In were more teams with double-digit loss totals-11, 12, some even 13 defeats. Moreover, the two leagues that made hay the year before were the definition of the term ‘snub’ in 2007.
For the second straight year the release of the brackets brought a mix of elation and bitterness for the CAA and MVC (and ironically after their performance the year before had softened sentiment about them; Jim Nantz and Billy Packer were much kinder in their assessments this year). Coming off the MVC’s two Sweet 16 teams and the CAA’s Final Four George Mason team the year before, and with strong conference showings again this year, both conferences had every right to expect good things when the brackets came out in 2007.
Instead, both received just two bids. The MVC’s two teams were underseeded (even Southern Illinois as a MVC league best-ever 4 was low given its No. 7 RPI, especially when one looks at the resume of NCAA 2 seed Memphis one spot behind them in the RPI). Meanwhile, the CAA got one of its two bubble teams in, but also joined the Valley with each their own team that had every reason to be disappointed.
Missouri State saw its bubble burst-again. The Bears’ resume certainly wasn’t unimpeachable, but it should’ve been good enough. The initial numbers mixed between fair and good: a 3-5 mark vs. the top 50, 9-9 vs. the top 100, and only one marquee win while going 0-5 against the MVC’s top two teams. That one win, though, happened to be on a neutral court against a Wisconsin team that was good enough to be a 2 seed in the NCAAs. That alone should’ve been a statement, but the real bottom line is this: Missouri State finished third in the sixth-rated conference in the country. If this were the third-place ACC or Big East team we were talking about with a 12-6 conference record, 20 wins and a 38 RPI even in a relative down year for those leagues, the resume would’ve been a virtual cinch for selection. It can only be concluded the Bears-and the MVC-were docked as much for their name as any flaws in MSU’s season.
Drexel’s omission was still even more maddening. The Dragons held two top 25 wins, both on the road where they did incredible work all year. Drexel won at Creighton, Syracuse, Temple and even Vermont, which it tied for the nation lead for road wins with 13. The Dragons were 3-4 against the top 50, 7-6 vs. the top 100. Their biggest offense was finishing fourth in that CAA that put two teams in the NCAAs and had a top four teams at the top all with at least 13 league wins and 21 wins overall. Hofstra finished one game ahead of Drexel in the Colonial regular season standings, but did not have near the overall strength of schedule the Dragons did.
Committee chair and Princeton A.D. Gary Walters said Drexel was “probably among the top two or three teams under at-large consideration that we really struggled with.” He also compared Drexel to Old Dominion and said “ODU just performed really admirably and came in second in the league and had the better conference record by a significant margin.” The Monarchs finished two games ahead of Drexel; it wasn’t that significant of a margin, nor should it have been an either/or between the two.
Clark Kellogg said on CBS’s selection show that he thought Drexel and Missouri State should be in. Seth Davis said the same for Drexel and Syracuse. Dick Vitale even stumped for the Dragons. Joe Lunardi had the Dragons (and Syracuse) in his final bracket, Old Dominion and Illinois out. It seemed everyone understood Drexel should’ve been in, except the committee selecting the teams.
There were big name programs who were left out despite some gaudy win totals. Kansas State, Syracuse and West Virginia all won 22 games, but all three were light on performance against the top 50 and top 100. Syracuse had the best case, with a 3-2 mark vs. the top 25 (3-6 against the top 50 and 8-8 vs. the top 100 overall), but it also lost at home to Drexel and Walters also pointed out the Big East’s unbalanced schedule playing a role in the Cuse’s 10-6 league mark. K-State and WVU were both just 5-8 against the top 100, making the argument against their inclusion pretty easy.
Florida State held three top 25 wins, defeated Duke, Florida, Maryland and Virginia Tech teams all in the NCAA tourney, and was a respectable 5-7 vs. the top 50, but finished 7-9 in the ACC. Also, one year after the committee gave Air Force a glowing recommendation upon handing it an invitation, it rebuked the Falcons this time. This may have been the Academy’s best team yet, ranked much of the season and as high as 13th in January. The Falcons were 23-4 at one point, but sagged to a tie for third in the Mountain West late and lost four straight to close the season. AFA was 1-4 against the top 50 but 6-1 vs. teams 51-100, and it was a bit strange seeing Stanford and Texas Tech sneak in after the Falcons beat both handily in the regular season, including the Cardinal by 34 on the road in November.
Stanford especially was the most questionable pick, with Texas Tech and Illinois close behind and Arkansas there too. By resume, the Cardinal was 4-8 against the top 50, 9-12 vs. the top 100, finished sixth in the Pac-10 and lost six of its last nine entering the tourney. By rating, Stanford had easily the lowest RPI of any at-large team that year (63). Its case mainly rested on a win at Virginia (a way overseeded No. 4 in the NCAAs) in early January and home wins over four of the five teams ahead of it in the Pac-10 standings, but a blowout loss at home to Air Force and further home losses to Santa Clara and California should’ve cancelled some of that out.
Stanford did defeat Texas Tech, which was a fair 4-5 vs. the top 50 but 7-9 against the top 100 and also with three sub-100 losses. The Red Raiders swept Texas A&M and also defeated Kansas, wins Walters cited as part of why the committee put them in, but Tech also had eight losses by double-digit margins. Again somewhat confusingly, Walters cited Tech’s performance within the South Division of the Big 12 as a strength; the Red Raiders finished 9-7 in conference. As for Illinois, a 29 RPI looked good, but the Illini was just 4-9 vs. the top 50 and 8-11 against the top 100. Arkansas got off to an 8-1 start, then stumbled for the next 2 1/2 months before heating back up in the SEC Tournament, winning three straight to get to the championship game. A 21-point loss to soon-to-be repeat national championship winner Florida apparently wasn’t enough to keep the Razorbacks out.
One more team that missed the tourney was Appalachian State, though it wasn’t for lack of trying. The Mountaineers had an excellent season, going 25-7, defeating Virginia, Vanderbilt and VCU and even winning a Bracket Busters game at Wichita State. Three top 50 wins and a 5-2 mark against the top 100 was offset, though, by five sub-100 losses. The school still came up with a unique way to make its case to the selection committee sequestered in Indianapolis, spending $10,000 on a full-page ad in the Indianapolis Star newspaper touting its credentials. Clearly it did not influence the committee’s final decision on App State, but it did get many talking.
2008
Last in: 10 Arizona (19-14), 10 Saint Mary’s (25-6), 10 South Alabama (26-6), 11 Baylor (21-10), 11 Kansas State (20-11), 11 Kentucky (18-12), 11 Saint Joseph’s (21-12), 12 Villanova (20-12)
Left out: Arizona State (19-12), Dayton (21-10), Florida (21-11), Illinois State (24-9), Mississippi (21-10), Ohio State (19-13), VCU (24-7), Virginia Tech (19-13)
Multi-bid conferences: 10
The trend for committees preferring the proverbial ‘middling majors’ for final at-large spots that started in 2007 picked up steam this year. Just ten conferences received two bids or more, and the bottom of the bracket was filled with teams with double-digit losses, including Arizona becoming just the fifth ever to receive an at-large with 14 losses.
Some of that may have been hard to avoid. After the previous couple years when there were more good at-large candidates than spots available, 2008 was the distinct opposite. A 60-team tourney probably would’ve accommodated just fine. Still, this was once again another prime example of how different committees have distinctly different things they’re looking for, and clearly they were mostly looking for teams from a major conference background.
This was the third straight year the Missouri Valley received mixed treatment from the committee, and that might be putting it too politely. Drake won the regular season and tourney titles and was a 5 seed, good for a champion outside the TV conferences until one recognized the MVC was the No. 8 league in the RPI that year, the Bulldogs held a 10 RPI and were 7-1 vs. the top 50 (though just one of those wins was in the top 25). That was the only bid the Valley received, though, as No. 2 team Illinois State was left out.
The Redbirds’ case was hardly airtight, with a 2-5 mark vs. the top 50 and 5-5 against the top 100. There also were four sub-100 losses. By one measure, ISU was 0-5 vs. field and had just two top 50 wins. By another, though, the Redbirds had 15 wins vs. the top 150. For a comparison looking back some years, Manhattan in 1995 saw a 9-4 mark vs. the top 150 cited as a plus; in this season, Oregon had 11 top 150 wins, Kentucky 10. Kansas State had nine. ISU also was 9-3 in its last 12 games, and once again the selective recognition of the numbers from an RPI rank was a frustrating point. In the history of Jerry Palm’s collegerpi.com website that dates back to 1993-94, the last-and only-time a team from the major conferences was left out of the field with an RPI that high was Oklahoma in 1993-94 with a 15-12 record.
Illinois State wasn’t the only one this year, as Dayton held the highest RPI of any team left out (32). The Flyers were outstanding in non-conference play and were 14-1 at one point while posting two premium wins, defeating future NCAA 3 seed Louisville on the road and NCAA 4 seed Pittsburgh by 25 points at home. Dayton won 13 games in a row, climbed well into the national rankings, and then fell apart in Atlantic 10 play, no thanks to a major injury loss. The Flyers lost eight of their next 11, and actually had to win three straight just to finish 8-8 and tied for seventh in a 14-team A-10. The dive coincided with the loss of star freshman Chris Wright to a season-ending injury in early January. Even with the struggles, Dayton’s resume still stood up favorably compared to a number of teams that got in (4-4 vs. the top 50, 9-6 against the top 100, though four sub-100 losses). It was always going to be unlikely that the committee would overlook that conference performance, though, but if ever there was a case to do so, this was it.
This year was the first year of many when Virginia Tech under Seth Greenberg became a seemingly annual bubble club. The Hokies’ omission really shouldn’t have been that surprising this year. Tech was 1-7 against the RPI top 50, and as selection committee chair and George Mason athletic director Tom O’Connor noted, did not hold a top 50 win until topping Miami (Fla.) in its ACC Tournament quarterfinal. VPI’s case really relied almost entirely on finishing fourth of 12 teams in the ACC in the regular season with a 9-7 mark against an unbalanced schedule; that wasn’t enough to overcome a 6-9 mark vs. the top 100 plus still four sub-100 losses.
Arizona State was another team that some were surprised was out, but the Sun Devils played a horrendous non-conference schedule reflected in their puffy 83 RPI. The same flaw combined with a poor conference mark also seemed to do in Mississippi, which was actually 5-3 against the top 50 and 8-5 vs. the top 100, but also lost five times to teams in the 101-200 range. The Rebels were one of the stories of the early season, getting off to a 13-0 start including a San Juan Shootout championship to vault into the national rankings, but finished just 7-9 in the SEC and were 2-7 in true road games all year. Coach Andy Kennedy even said he figured Ole Miss came up about one win short when it lost its SEC tourney opener. Syracuse was a squeaky wheel when its bubble popped (would we want it any other way from Jim Boeheim?) but the Cuse was just 3-8 vs. the top 50 and 6-11 against the top 100.
The bigger issue for a team like Dayton, Illinois State or Ole Miss being left out was some of the teams that got in. Arizona, Baylor, Kansas State, Kentucky and Oregon all were selected with less-than glittering credentials. Arizona played a strong schedule but was just 18-14 against Division I opponents and 4-8 in its last 12 games. It would seem a team better have been pretty special to get an at-large with 14 losses, and Arizona absolutely did play one of the toughest schedules in the country. Still, the Wildcats’ best win was over NCAA 4 seed Washington State, their best non-conference victory was over NCAA 8 seed UNLV, and a 10-12 record against the top 100 plus still two sub-100 losses made it quite clear there was little reason to expect Arizona would be a threat to go deep in the NCAA tourney.
Baylor was 3-8 vs. the top 50 and also played a host of cupcakes in its non-conference schedule. Kansas State went 3-6 vs. the top 50 and 6-10 against the top 100. Kentucky was 4-6 against the top 50 but just 7-11 vs. the top 100. Oregon was 4-7 against the top 50, 8-9 vs. the top 100 and 6-6 down the stretch. Any or all of them could’ve been left out. The candidates to replace them weren’t great. Besides others mentioned, VCU with 24 wins and a Colonial regular season title probably deserved a serious look even without a top 50 win, considering the Rams were 8-5 vs. the top 150. But it was clear which leagues were getting the benefit of the doubt.
2009
Last in: 10 Maryland (20-13), 10 Michigan (20-13), 10 Minnesota (22-10), 11 Dayton (26-7), 12 Arizona (19-13), 12 Wisconsin (19-12)
Left out: Creighton (26-7), Davidson (26-7), Florida (23-10), Illinois State (24-9), Kansas State (21-11), New Mexico (21-11), Penn State (22-11), Providence (19-13), Rhode Island (22-10), St. Mary’s (26-6), San Diego State (23-9), South Carolina (21-9)
Multi-bid conferences: 9
In some ways, selection for the 2009 NCAA Tournament was almost a mirror of the year before. Just nine conferences putting two or more teams into the field said it all; once again, teams from the top conferences received the benefit of the doubt at the end of the bracket. This time, the group of them collectively was slightly better, but so were the candidates left out that could’ve replaced them.
Arizona and Michigan were poster examples of teams like them. Both had similar seasons in so many ways, starting with both holding six top 50 wins in a boatload of chances (16 shots for each). Both also had middling overall records with a lot of losses, both went 9-9 in their leagues, both finished meekly (the Wolverines were 6-6 in their last 12; the Wildcats lost five of their last six) and both were weaklings on the road (combined 5-17 record). Wisconsin wasn’t much different. The Badgers were just 18-12 against D-I teams, 4-10 against the RPI top 50, 4-10 against the NCAA Tournament field and 4-7 on the road. Their lone road win over a top 50 team was at Michigan. A 10-8 Big Ten record was decent if not inspiring, and the non-conference furnished little of substance, wins over Virginia Tech and Wisconsin-Green Bay being the biggest. There were reasons to put them in, reasons to leave them out, but once again the committee prioritized their wins (predominantly at home) over considerably more losses in big games.
On the other end, Florida was left out despite 23 wins due to just one top 50 victory. Penn State won 22 games and was 6-9 against the RPI top 50, but the Nittany Lions also played a terrible non-conference schedule that left them with a whopping 11 sub-200 wins. That’s not easy to do playing in the Big Ten. South Carolina won 21 games but did not have a single top 50 win in a down year for the SEC. San Diego State had the highest RPI of any team left out at 34, but the Aztecs finished just fourth in the Mountain West, and 2-6 vs. the top 50 wasn’t going to be enough to overcome that.
Once again, the Missouri Valley had one of the biggest near-misses. Creighton tied for the regular season title in the ninth-rated league in the country and won 26 games, including 11 straight before falling to Illinois State in the semifinals at Arch Madness. The Bluejays were just 2-2 against the RPI top 50, but 9-5 vs. the top 100. The Jays drilled Dayton (which was badly underseeded as an 11 in the NCAAs, given their three top 50 wins and 9-4 mark vs. the top 100), and Creighton also beat George Mason (51 RPI) and beat fellow bubble team New Mexico. A comparison with LSU should’ve told the committee just what to do with Creighton. The Tigers had a very similar resume-in fact, the exact same record (26-7) with a 1-3 mark against the top 50 (11-6 vs. the top 100). LSU didn’t just get into the tournament; it was an 8 seed. If the Tigers were deemed an 8 seed with the resume they had, Creighton absolutely should’ve been able to count on its selection.
Creighton should’ve been in ahead of Maryland. The Terrapins snuck in as a 10 seed despite a 4-8 mark against the RPI top 50, 8-11 vs. the top 100 and still with two sub-100 losses. All season, Maryland was hyped for the quality of its biggest wins, and the Terps had three major Ws, defeating eventual NCAA 2 seed Michigan State, NCAA 1 seed North Carolina and 4 seed Wake Forest. The problem was that all of those big wins and then some were offset by some horrible losses. Not necessarily by rank of opponent, but by score. Maryland lost to Gonzaga, Georgetown, Duke and Clemson by an average of 29.8 points per game, with margins ranging from 22 to 41 points. Margins like that should’ve cancelled out much of the benefit the Terps received from their big wins. There also was a loss at home to Morgan State in early January, plus seven sub-200 opponents out of conference. Add in a 7-9 ACC mark and a 9-11 record after a mostly cushy early season schedule, and this just wasn’t a 13-loss profile deserving of a bid.
Two other teams were NIT bound despite being squads many would’ve liked to see in the NCAA Tournament. Davidson was without question good enough to win some games in the NCAAs, with a high-scoring guard named Stephen Curry who led the Wildcats to the Elite Eight the year before. The Wildcats tried to schedule well, taking on Duke, North Carolina State, Oklahoma, Purdue and West Virginia, and also played Butler in Bracket Busters. Davidson defeated West Virginia, and was competitive in losses at Duke and Oklahoma, but a win over N.C. State didn’t even register in the top 100. Moreover, Davidson was crippled by its league, as not a single Southern Conference team registered inside the RPI top 100. The Wildcats also had a few late-season hiccups (losing twice to College of Charleston, including in the SoCon tourney) and the resume was just too thin. It’s a shame, because it sure would’ve been fun to see Curry in the NCAAs again.
Saint Mary’s was another team that would’ve been fun to see in the tourney and at full strength was almost for sure at-large worthy in quality. The Gaels were left out, mainly due to their schedule and a late-season injury to star guard Patrick Mills. The Gaels went 0-for-3 against Gonzaga, and 21 of their 24 D-I wins were against teams ranked 120 or lower. Mills broke his hand in a late January loss at Gonzaga, missed his team’s two-point loss to the Bulldogs at home two weeks later, and returned but clearly was not back to snuff yet in a lopsided loss to the Zags in the WCC tourney final.
Illinois State also wasn’t far off for the second straight year; in fact, the Redbirds had better numbers than the year before in some ways with two top 50 wins and a 7-6 record against the top 100, but if Creighton couldn’t get in, one wonders if the committee even considered ISU. The list of those left out up top doesn’t even include Arkansas-Little Rock (23-8), College of Charleston (26-8) or Niagara (26-8), teams that put up gaudy numbers and in the case of UALR (Creighton) and Charleston (South Carolina and Davidson) picked up wins against fellow bubble teams that should’ve made them serious candidates. Two of the three were flat-out sunk by their RPI, though. UALR was down at 91 in the RPI per the NCAA’s RPI numbers, while Charleston was incredibly even lower at 102. Both teams had a full 16 of their wins against sub-200 teams.
Niagara should’ve had a slightly better chance with a nice 49 RPI, and the Purple Eagles were 2-3 against the top 50 and 5-4 vs. the top 100. Four sub-100 losses were probably a deal breaker, though, especially two against sub-200 teams in mid-January. Still, a win over RPI top 20 Siena plus a convincing Bracket Busters win over Illinois State should’ve had Niagara a serious candidate, even as the schedule undoubtedly had a lot of 100 and below opponents.
Coming next: We’ll be back Monday with a look at the 2010-14 tournaments
