When it comes to events like this week’s Southeastern Conference Tournament in Nashville, “coachspeak” requires us to claim that it is “wide open” and “any team can win it.”
Rarely is that true in college basketball – usually only a handful of teams are capable of putting forth strings of victories that such events require – but it comes close for this week’s SEC elimination bouts.
That isn’t to say that a team finishing in the bottom half of the standings is going to make a run like Georgia did in 2008, when it won four in a row after being awarded the No. 6 East seed (the league still divided the league into two divisions in basketball just like football back then) after finishing 6-12 in league play.
When those Bulldogs were finished, they still had a losing record (10-12) against conference opponents for the season, so it truly was a remarkable four-game stretch.
Though such a run today is very unlikely, the 2020 event March 11-15 looks to be a collection of teams that each have the capability of making splash with a win or two but also have flaws that will preclude deeper run or even result in a one-and-done trip to the Music City.
All that said, here is a look at how the teams stack up listed by seeds:
1. Kentucky-Obviously, the Wildcats, who have won the SEC tourney title 19 times since the event was resurrected in 1979 and six times in the last 10 years, have to be considered the favorite after winning the regular-season championship. But just how mercurial these Wildcats can be was never more evident than in the last two games of the regular season when they blew a 17-point halftime lead and lost to Tennessee at home, no less, and then their next outing overcame an 18-point second-half deficit to beat Florida in Gainesville. The apparent disagreement between Ashton Hagans and coach John Calipari that may have been the “personal issue” that led to the point guard staying at home instead of traveling to Gainesville last weekend bears watching, but reports indicate that Hagans is all in again with the Wildcats. As a wise man once wrote, “The race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.” The Wildcats will meet the Tennessee-Alabama winner in the quarterfinals Friday.
2. Auburn-As vulnerable as the Tigers looked in losing back-to-back games (at Kentucky and at home to Texas A&M) recently for the third time this season, they were just as impressive in an 85-63 dismantling of Tennessee in Knoxville in their regular-season finale. They often fall too much in love with their 3-point shooting – only one SEC team takes more 3-pointers (Alabama with 924) than their 824 attempts for the season – but their percentage of 30.4 percent ranks only 11th. With one of the top guard combos in Samir Doughty and J’Von McCormick in the league and a double-double threat in center Austin Riley, however, the Tigers remain a threat for their third SEC tourney title and second in a row. Auburn takes on the Missouri-Texas A&M winner in the quarterfinals.
3. LSU-Like Auburn, LSU also struggled in the second half of the conference season after starting 8-0, going only 4-6 in their last 10 games. These Tigers also haven’t won consecutive games in well over a month and, as Kentucky’s Calipari said recently, if you haven’t won six in a row in the regular season, what makes you think you can win six in a row in the NCAA tourney. LSU is the best shooting team in the conference (47.1 percent) and No. 2 in scoring (80.5 ppg) but only 11th in scoring defense, giving up 73.3 ppg, ahead of only Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Alabama. They are second in rebounding margin (+6.3) but 11th in turnover margin (-0.7). Their opponent will come from a trio of Arkansas, Vanderbilt, or South Carolina.
4. Mississippi State-The Bulldogs slipped into the quarterfinals when they beat rival Ole Miss after Florida lost to Kentucky on the final day of the regular season, and that good fortune makes them more dangerous. They won three of their last four games and feature a candidate for Player of the Year in double-double machine Reggie Perry (17.4 ppg/10.1 rpg). Much will depend on how guard Nick Weatherspoon fares. He had a nice game against Ole Miss (11 points on 4-of-11 shooting, 6 assists, and no turnovers) but was a combined 11 of 29 from the field for 30 points with only 5 assists and 5 turnovers in the previous three games (wins over Alabama and Missouri and a loss at South Carolina). The Bulldogs’ next opponent will come from among Ole Miss, Georgia, or Florida.
5. Florida-One might wonder what the Gators are dong here. They had the No. 2 seed and a double-bye nearly in their grasp when they assumed an 18-point lead midway through the second half against Kentucky but couldn’t finish the job. The 71-70 loss to the Wildcats kind of sums up Florida’s season. Coach Mike White’s crew started with high hopes and a No. 6 national ranking, but early double-digit losses to Florida State at home and at Butler took care of that. The Gators have shown they can beat anybody, notching double-digit wins over Auburn and LSU, for example, but also that they can lose to anybody, losing by 16 at Missouri and 17 at Ole Miss. Having to face the possibility of winning an extra game to capture the tourney title is an unwanted burden for a team whose longest winning streak was four games early in the season. The status of Kerry Blackshear’s injured wrist also could be a factor. The Gators face the Ole Miss-Georgia winner in the second round.
6. South Carolina-The Gamecocks limp into the tourney with losses in four of their last six games, but their 83-71 win over Mississippi State last week and an earlier victory over Kentucky shows their potential. That last win came during a 5-1 stretch that put them in the conversation for an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney, but subsequent developments, including a loss to Vanderbilt in their regular-season finale, pretty much have squelched those hopes. They face the winner of Arkansas-Vandy in the second round with the prospect of a one-and-done tourney appearance looming.
7. Texas A&M-Coach Buzz Williams’ team has won its last two games, including a road win at Auburn, five of its last seven games, and beat its tourney opponent Missouri twice in the regular season. Sometimes their games get ugly. The Aggies struggle on offense, averaging a league-low 63.1 ppg, but give up only 65.2 ppg, third-best in the conference. They shoot a league-worst 40.4 from the field but hold their opponents to a similar percentage, 40.9. Forward Josh Nebo can be a force. He has 45 points and 21 rebounds the lat three games, including a 20-9 effort against Arkansas in the regular-season finale. A rematch with Auburn awaits the Aggies if they get by Missouri.
8. Tennessee-The Vols have struggled with injuries all season but seemed to be getting it together with wins over Florida and at Kentucky before losing their finale big at home to Auburn. It was the second loss to the Tigers in a 10-day span and they were never in the rematch after leading the Tigers by 17 points with under 15 minutes to go in 73-66 setback in the first meeting. Working in the Vols favor is the emergence of forward John Fulkerson as a scoring threat inside (22.7 ppg over his last three games). His medium-range jump shot is nearly unstoppable. Guard Josiah-Jordan James had an off day against Auburn in the finale (only a single assist against six turnovers) but had 11 assists in the wins over Florida and Kentucky the two games before that. The Vols get Alabama, who they beat at Tuscaloosa on Feb. 4, for their tourney opener.
9. Alabama-Live by the 3-pointer, die by the 3-pointer. No team relies on its long-range game like the Crimson Tide, which set program records for 3-point attempts (957) and makes (354) for an SEC-best 34.9 percent success rate. They were 13 of 35 from long range in a win over LSU and school record 22 of 59 in pushing Auburn to overtime on the road. But they shot only 16 percent from long range (4 of 25) in a loss to a mediocre Missouri team in their finale. If they are on their 3-point game and keep their turnovers under control, they are capable of a couple of wins, though they would meet Kentucky should they get by the Vols on Thursday. A healthy John Petty Jr. (elbow) to go with Kira Lewis Jr. and Jaden Shackelford on the perimeter would be a big boost.
10. Missouri-If the Tigers can duplicate the performance they had last Saturday when they outscored Alabama 32-13 over the last nine minutes for a 69-50 victory, they could snap a two-game tourney losing streak. But that closing win over Alabama was only their second victory in their last five games, however, and the other one was over last-place Vanderbilt. The Tigers don’t score much (67.1 ppg) but give up only 65.2 ppg, second in scoring defense to Tennessee’s 64.2 mark. The Tigers face Texas A&M Thursday night.
11. Arkansas-The Razorbacks have the league’s top scorer in Mason Jones (22.0 ppg) and Isaiah Joe has averaged 20.4 ppg in five games since his return after missing five games to injury. The Hogs have won only three of those outings, however, though one of their victims was LSU in a game that almost knocked the Tigers from a Top 4 seed. With two scorers like Jones and Joe, the Hogs can be dangerous. But a long run doesn’t seem likely. They won their only meeting with their opening opponent, Vanderbilt, by 20, but lost at home to their potential second-round opponent, South Carolina.
12. Ole Miss-The Rebels have the league’s No. 2 scorer in Breein Tyree, and Devontae Shuler also has come along nicely. But just how important Tyree is to their fortunes likely was shown in their two games against Mississippi State. He scored a career-high 40 in an 83-58 Ole Miss win over the Bulldogs in Oxford but managed only 11 points in a 69-44 loss to the Bulldogs in the rematch Saturday in Starkville. They beat their first-round opponent, Georgia, in Athens, but that was back in January. Interestingly, they split their two meetings with their potential second-round foe, Florida.
13. Georgia-The Bulldogs aren’t likely to duplicate their 2008 miracle, but could be troublesome for the Rebels in their opener. Freshman Anthony Edwards is the No. 3 scorer in the league (19.5 ppg) and the leading candidate for newcomer of the year. The Bulldogs can score (75.7 ppg) but have a hard time stopping people, yielding 76.0 ppg. They have lost their last two games and are 3-3 in their last six, but that includes an overtime loss at South Carolina. The wins include a 65-55 victory over Auburn and an 80-78 win over Vanderbilt that helped keep the Bulldogs out of last place.
14. Vanderbilt-Yes, the Commodores have only three SEC wins, but significantly, two of those wins came in their last two games, and their first one was over what was then an undefeated LSU team. Numbers don’t favor the Commodores in any statistical category (they are No. 2 in 3-pointers with 8.3 per game and No. 4 in turnover margin at +0.9 for their highest marks). Saben Lee scored 57 points in the two closing wins and Scotty Pippen Jr. (yes, he’s the son of the former NBA great Scottie Pippen) added 34. Perhaps the Commodores have learned how to close out games, which could prove interesting.
